Goldman Sachs has sharply lowered its Tesla Q3 2026 delivery forecast. The firm now expects 435,000 deliveries, down from its previous estimate of 490,000 — an 11.2% cut. Goldman analyst Mark Delaney cited weaker-than-expected recent sales trends in the U.S., China, and Europe. However, Tesla continues to see stronger year-over-year demand in several Giga Shanghai export markets, including Southeast Asia, South America, and Australia, which could partially offset weakness in the major markets. • Previous Q3 forecast: 490K • Revised Q3 forecast: 435K • Visible Alpha consensus: ~456K • Tesla Q2 deliveries: 480,126 • Goldman Q4 forecast: 515K → 475K Goldman maintained its Neutral rating and $360 price target on Tesla. One interesting point: Goldman had forecast just 420K deliveries for Q2, while Tesla ultimately delivered 480,126 vehicles — roughly 60,000 more than expected. Now the question is whether Goldman’s conservative 435K Q3 estimate will prove accurate, or whether Tesla will once again outperform expectations.