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Teslaconomics
@Teslaconomics
I post my conscious thoughts w/ the world, live to the fullest, keep things simple, truthful & filter the noise. Long-term investor in Tesla, SpaceX, xAI/X.
Joined April 2018
229 Following    502.5K Followers
Elon just walked the Optimus production line in Fremont. This confirms Tesla’s factory pivot is underway. The former Model S/X production area is now being transformed into the first high-volume Optimus production line. Fremont will prove the process and Giga Texas will scale it. 1/ Fremont = Optimus Line 1 (Gen 3) Targets: • Capacity goal: 1 million Optimus robots per year • Initial production ramp expected late July/August 2026 • Slow S-curve at first, Optimus has roughly 10,000 unique parts, so every manufacturing process is new. • Tesla already has 1,000+ Optimus robots working inside its factories, collecting real-world data and improving the system every day. 2/ Giga Texas = Line 2 (Gen 4 and beyond) Targets: • Dedicated Optimus factory • 10 million robots per year capacity (~27,000 per day) • High-volume production targeted around summer 2027 3/ The long-term vision Expected progression: • 2026: Pilot production and low-thousands (primarily internal deployment) • 2027+: Hundreds of thousands, then millions annually • Long term: Multiple global factories producing 100M+ robots per year Tesla is targeting a manufacturing cost of roughly $20,000-30,000 per robot, enabling deployment across factories, warehouses, businesses, and eventually homes. Optimus will be Tesla’s biggest product ever and will ultimately represent the majority of Tesla’s long-term value. Elon walking the production line confirms Tesla has executed the pivot from producing low-volume Model S/X vehicles in this space to building the foundation for high-volume humanoid robot manufacturing. Let’s go Tesla Optimus!
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