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Teslaconomics
@Teslaconomics
Joined April 2018
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Y’all think $TSLA is 1/ overvalued or 2/ undervalued? To me, it’s still undervalued… I believe the majority of Tesla’s long-term value will come from Cybercab and the Robotaxi network, and we’re still early in seeing what that business can become. The part I keep coming back to is what each vehicle could earn over its lifetime. A Cybercab in Tesla’s fleet can bring in $ money every time someone takes a ride, day after day, for years. If Tesla can keep those vehicles busy and get the costs low enough, the profit from those rides could eventually be worth far more than the profit from selling the car. We’re already seeing the first steps too. Tesla started Cybercab rides in Austin on September 3. By the end of Q3, its Robotaxi fleet had reached nearly 2 million cumulative unsupervised miles, 8x the total at the end of Q2. That’s real progress. Tesla also builds the vehicles, develops the driving software and operates its own charging network. I think having those pieces together gives it a strong foundation to build on as the service grows. Tesla still has to expand safely, get the approvals it needs and make $ money after paying for the vehicles, charging, cleaning, insurance and maintenance, etc. Revenue only gets you so far if the costs eat it all up… That’s why I’m looking years ahead of a lot of people. I want to see how many people use the service, how often each car is working and how much profit the fleet can produce as it grows. My view is that today’s valuation still extremely underestimates what that part of the business could eventually earn. And also when they allow Tesla owner fleets to be on the Robotaxi network… that’s checkmate. As more people experience it in their own cities and Tesla shows what it can earn from those rides, I believe it’ll become obvious to the world why I see $TSLA as undervalued today. Just from Robotaxis, wait until Optimus arrives… either way, just my 2 cents.
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