Babyfolio
@babyfolio
Software engineer & Investor for 10+ years managing generational wealth for my 2 babies. Covering AI infrastructure.
↓ My Portfolio & Real-time Trade Alerts ↓
595 Following 61.5K Followers
Kioxia (285A) is now trading at just 2.5x forward P/E and under 5x P/S.
The company guided for barely any sequential growth. It's still crazy how brutal this selloff has been.
Btw, I personally don't like holding Japanese companies so I'm not even considering this name. Just interesting to watch.
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For those who are bullish $NBIS and are looking for entry, I see an opportunity at current prices, R/R is insane here.
If not here, what are you waiting for? (Not financial advice)
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I'm up close to 7000% since 2018.
Yes, I wasn't investing during the dotcom crash or the GFC (Too young, I'm 31).
The comment I hear most when me or others post YTD returns: "This year doesn't count because everything boomed."
Yet I don't see many people with returns like mine. But you know what? Let's say you're right.
I started investing in late 2017. I've been through the 2018 China tariffs, the COVID crash, the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, the 2025 tariff war and the 2026 Iran war.
Through all of that, I'm up close to 7,000%, around 61% CAGR over about nine years. Two weeks ago, I was closer to 9,000%.
So before dismissing everyone who posts their returns, look in the mirror. If you're not doing well in these "special" times when supposedly everything booms, you're not in much of a position to judge.
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Honestly, Black Monday or not, I'm holding through it.
If you're fully invested, hold. If you're holding garbage shitcos, concentrate your portfolio in higher quality names. They'll recover much faster.
I own one of the best beneficiaries - $NBIS (there are many other options for the sceptics), and I'm staying put.
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BREAKING: Traders warn of Black Monday on 1987 Anniversary
80% chance Fed "hikes" interest rates this year
I agree with @ren_stocks here. Good take on memory.
R/R looks very attractive at these levels.
I generally prefer HBM over NAND, which is why I lean more toward $MU and SK Hynix than $SNDK.
And between those two, I prefer SK Hynix over $MU, but I think $MU is the better buy here.
Korean stocks have been trading like ass, and buying $SKHY comes with a massive premium over the Korean listing.
Memory stocks look cheap here. I don't think they'll stay that way for long.
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$MU $SNDK $SKHY
Samsung and SK Hynix are both down more than 50% from their June highs, and they now trade at 2–3x their 2027–28 earnings.
In every previous memory upcycle (2001, 2008, 2018, 2022), the low end for these two was 4–7x. Their price-to-book is now near 1x, a level that usually shows up only at the bottom of a real bust, with warehouses full of unsold chips, DRAM prices cut in half and quarterly losses.
None of that is happening this time.
Memory inventories at both companies fell below 10 days in September, and KB Securities has their earnings staying near record highs through 2028, with only a single-digit dip that year.
Every new generation of GPUs and custom chips also needs new memory: HBM, SOCAMM, LPDDR5 and enterprise SSDs. As the installed base gets refreshed, each upgrade cycle turns into another round of orders.
The market is pricing in a bust but the demand is ever increasing.
Long $MU and $SNDK, and not selling.
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After the recent drawdown, I'm back to +215% YTD (vs. +84% for $NBIS), down about 18.2% since my last post.
$NBIS is by far my largest holding, and the stock is down roughly 30% over the same period.
Like everyone else, I don't enjoy seeing red, but the outperformance I've built up makes the volatility easier to stomach.
My entries weren't perfect, though they were much better than in July (Where I blew all my cash way too early). I stuck to the system I've built for myself, the same one that got me these returns in the first place.
And to the people mocking me in the replies, why not share your returns(Choose whatever timeframe you want)? You've been so sure AI is a bubble. I'm curious to see how that's worked out for you.
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I’m up 286% YTD.
I’m not going to pretend that’s normal, sustainable, or something I expect to repeat every year.
But I’m also not going to downplay it.
A lot of it came from constantly reassessing R/R, rotating when things changed, and being willing to trim names I loved (yes, even $NBIS and $CRDO) when the upside stopped justifying the downside.
My subscribers have seen these rotations and trims happen in real time, so this isn’t hindsight.
One of the best years of my career. And we’re not done yet.
P.S YTD screenshots may mark the local top, but that doesn't matter because I am very well positioned for both upside and downside. 😜
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$META, $GOOGL and $MSFT are reporting this week and the week after.
Their earnings are going to matter a lot for the AI infra trade(as always).
I want to see execution on track, positive demand outlook and guidance reaffirmed, especially around capex and capacity expansion.
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Some people just can't grasp why I mix fundamentals with technicals.
Every decision I make is aimed at improving my win rate. I still lose sometimes, so I try to keep those losses small.
Trading around a core holding lets me accumulate more shares without adding new money. Call me a trader or an investor, couldn't care less. I just want the best returns I can get.
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Call me AI-pilled, but I genuinely believe AI will be the biggest driver of GDP growth over the next decade.
And guess what resource all that growth will depend on?
Compute.
That's why I'm so bullish on AI infrastructure, specifically $NBIS.
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BREAKING: Anthropic says "AI could push US GDP to $44 trillion by 2030"
70% chance of IPO this year
Lmao, the amount of hate I got for such a simple $NBIS post is hilarious.
I hold $NBIS, and I think the R/R here is very attractive. That's it.
Some of the clowns here have been reading so many bear takes yesterday that they've convinced themselves the bear case is playing out just because the stock dropped over the last few days.
Meanwhile, the entire AI infrastructure sector is getting hammered. Surely it's $NBIS specific, right?
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$NBIS has incredible R/R at these levels.
I have no idea how much lower we can go, but I believe the upside is massively asymmetric to the downside.
You're buying a much stronger business than you were before July, with significant improvements and considerably less risk.
I expect them to give massive ARR guidance for 2027, and believe it or not, I think they'll beat it.
So whatever number they guide, I'm already expecting the actual result to be higher.
That's how bullish I am here.
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$NBIS has incredible R/R at these levels.
I have no idea how much lower we can go, but I believe the upside is massively asymmetric to the downside.
You're buying a much stronger business than you were before July, with significant improvements and considerably less risk.
I expect them to give massive ARR guidance for 2027, and believe it or not, I think they'll beat it.
So whatever number they guide, I'm already expecting the actual result to be higher.
That's how bullish I am here.
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Don't let anyone scare you out of your stocks.
Do your DD, it'll be okay.
That said, don't easily dismiss bear cases, acknowledge them, they're part of the thesis.
I've said this before: $SPCX shareholders will end up scooping up $TSLA at a bargain.
Why do I think it'll happen after $TSLA takes a serious beating?
Elon owns 49% of SpaceX and already has voting control. Acquiring Tesla at a depressed valuation would give SpaceX shareholders a much better deal while consolidating Elon's control over both companies.
I think this merger is a matter of when, not if.
The real question is at what price.
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BREAKING: 60% chance Tesla and SpaceX merge within the next year — an all-time high.
This is cool for sure, but it has no financial viabillity for $TSLA shareholder.
I doubt we'll see anything like it on the roads before 2035.
This is like Optimus reveal in 2021. Cool, but not viable yet.
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It's pretty cool not gonna lie haha $TSLA
Nebius $NBIS: The Blueprint for an AI-Native Hyperscaler
My Nebius investment thesis is live!
Free, as promised.
I started trading around $NBIS earlier this year. Since September alone, selling highs and buying lows has added 7k shares, or about 14%, to my position.
In January, I was full port Nebius with 25k shares. Now I have 43k.
Do I owe taxes? Yes.
Do I care? No.
Was it worth it? Hell yes.
Please stop lecturing me about taxes, trading, or my strategy. It's definitely not for everyone and I never pushed anyone to do it.
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The feedback in the Discord today after I stayed patient and made the big $NBIS rotation today has been unreal.
Hearing that the alerts helped some of you is what keeps me going 😍
You're welcome, it was free right here.
Hope you didn't hesitate.
It's a battlefield on the $NBIS 200D SMA right now.
Here's why I think it's a great entry:
