Underappreciated, but Coinbase $COIN has also spun their new prediction market business to ~$100m of run-rate revenue as of Q2 (up 2x q/q in both rev & contracts) > Scale is material as their PM business should quickly flip their inst. trading biz (did $100m of net rev in Q2)

Robinhood Q2 out and prediction markets the story: > ATH of $156m Q2 PM rev (+50% q/q & rr of $624m) > Events now 20% of total tx rev (now bigger than both equities & crypto) > ATH of 13.6b contracts traded in q (+55% q/q) w/ June largest month ever at 6.4b (only incl 1/2 World Cup) > Full impact of WC + Rothera next q + NFL szn -> hood on-pace to build a >$1b top-line pm business > ggwp to Vlad + metrics below:

Yesterday, Dragonfly filed a comment letter supporting the CFTC’s proposed framework for prediction market event contracts. We support the Commission’s case-by-case review framework, including its structured procedures and settlement-focused test for determining when a contract “involves” a particular activity. We also support the Commission’s proposed definition of “gaming” in § 40.11(b)(1), rather than the alternative structural formulation discussed in the proposal. In addition, we support a public-interest analysis that recognizes the full range of benefits prediction markets can provide, including information aggregation, hedging and pricing utility, responsible innovation, and fair competition. We appreciate the Commission’s thoughtful work and this opportunity to comment. Clear rules will protect market integrity while allowing responsible innovation in US prediction markets.

Still early, but the tokenized equity money lego games playing out on-chain are the beginning of a brand-new era. Crypto primitives are being applied to assets the whole world recognizes on open, global infrastructure. And although prices across the space are getting tattooed, if you look under the hood, you can see the next generation of financial products and businesses starting to take shape

Today, I’m incredibly excited to share that we’ve raised a $38 million Series A. The round was led by @HadickM at @dragonfly_xyz and @adamn at @FirstMarkCap , with continued support from @ac_steele and @SteveSarracino at @ActivantCapital, and new participation from @QEDInvestors , @CapitalOne Ventures, @coinbase Ventures, @Ripple, and @wintermute_t Ventures. Read more:

Introducing: Artemis Analyst I learned from the best investors at @whalerock and @insightpartners. Today we productize all the learnings I had as an analyst to help make AI investing accessible to ALL. We connected Fable 5 with 12+ proprietary data sources: 3,000+ equities, consensus estimates, crypto fundamentals, ETF flows, tokenization, prediction markets, and stablecoins. A top investor told us “after using Artemis Analyst 3x, I’m hooked” Questions you can answer and create charts for: > What is EV / NTM revenue for high growth SaaS ✅ > What is Anthropic vs OpenAI ARR? ✅ > What is the prediction market share of $HOOD Rothera during the World Cup ✅ > Build me a $HYPE model ✅ It’s still in beta and free in July. It’s what I wanted when I was an analyst at Whale Rock / Insight, packed with skills and data so I can focus on the fun part of investing: creating thesis and making calls. Use the Artemis Analyst today :)

We are thrilled to welcome Tanya Denisova to Agora! Tanya spent the last 6 years at Robinhood, where she was COO of Robinhood Crypto. Over her tenure they scaled operations to a multi-billion dollar business unit. Let's go! Full blog:

Stumbled on this chart w/ 66 grand slams stuck inside: > the 3 goats (Djokovic, Nadal, Federer) won only ~55% of points they played > that led to winning ~59% games, ~77% sets, and ~84% matches > decomposing greatness: often just a small edge repeatedly pounded down the line

Robinhood metrics released today and May was largest month ever for prediction markets on $HOOD w/ 3.9b prediction market contracts traded (+22% m/m) > At 1c RH fees, implies ~$470m of run-rate pm revenue > Fwiw June likely to set new ATH w/ World Cup in USA

One of the first disclosures I've seen of carnage from 10/10, Nomura reporting JPY 10.6bn (US $68m) of losses related to their crypto arm Laser Digital this q > CFO directly outlined the losses were driven by "digital asset market movements observed in October and November" > Says there had been "some long positions" in Oct/Nov + that they "had some long positions" and are now "reducing the volume of risk" > Lots of others will go unreported given they're not public, but just an example of the sizable damage felt throughout the industry on 10/10 ----------------------------------------------------- A few excerpts Hiroyuki Moriuchi for those curious: Statement from CFO: "In this past quarter, we recorded losses in part of our business in EMEA owing to digital asset market movements and the effect of currency hedges. Specifically, earnings at Laser Digital, the unit that runs digital asset business were negatively impacted by market movements observed in October and November of last year. Laser became profitable 2 years after its establishment and its performance was solid in Q2, but the units suffered a temporary negative impact in the third quarter. Earnings in the crypto asset business are volatile by nature, and we are well aware of management of the business over medium to long term, has to take that volatility into account. At the same time, to limit short-term earnings fluctuations, we have further tightened control over positions and risk exposure. Moving forward, we will continue to capture growth in crypto markets while strengthening our services and customer base." Question from Analyst Masao Muraki: "JPY 10.6 billion Red Inc. in Europe. Laser Digital, you said that there was a fluctuation of the market between September and November. So JPY 10 billion of losses. At that stage, there was quite a sizable position. What was the status in terms of position management? One year ago, quite a sizable profits had been recorded, but at that stage, what was the state of position management and in order to control volatility, you said that you are taking measures, but what's your forecast regarding the volatility of performance going forward?" Answer from Normura CFO: "Muraki-san, thank you for those questions. The first question -- the first point of question one, Laser's activity, were there any long positions taken? As you know, regarding Laser's activities, institutional investor market making and crypto assets, fund management and Nomura seed investment, venture investment. These are the diverse activities that Laser is engaged in as we offer services to customers. As you pointed out, there had been some long positions, and based upon that situation, going to the second point of your first question, how will we control volatility of performance going forward? This is a new industry of digital assets, and there are growth prospects, and we are currently in the stage of fostering businesses. And we -- our position is unchanged. We will -- we have long-term commitments. And in terms of risk management framework, we already had a robust risk management framework. On the other hand, in the short term, as you have rightly pointed out, how should I put it? There are times when sizable revenues are recorded, but last year, in November and December, there was some market disruption. So there is upside as well as downside, quite significant upside as well as significant downside. So in the short term, already, in order to control volatility, we are reducing the volume of risk in the positions we take. So this kind of precise position management will be continued in order to control upside and downside volatility, and in the long run, we wish to expand this business. So that concludes my response to your first question."

Still early in stablecoin land when USDC / USDT payouts for Deel contractors running at 2% fees + 1$ ntwk charges Services here provided by BVNK and payouts offered on ETH, Polygon, Tron. Also have a Coinbase USDC option at $5 under $300 or 1.6% above $300 In contrast, transfers to Wise / Revolut run at $0 Today, stables are more expensive relative to a range of other choices - leaving a subset of customers who they make sense for (i.e. those without other options) We'll see this flip over time. And the lines will blur (i.e. Revolut offers USDT deposits / withdrawals making it a cheaper base to move stables from vs. paying the upfront cost through Deel)

One day, you'll be able to borrow against your SpaceX shares to finance the purchase of tokenized gold and you'll be able to use it as collateral to buy a house irl The world is going to continue to tokenize (i.e. USD in the form of stablecoins is just the start) and I'm optimistic the new admin creates a regulatory pathway for the range of real world assets to be listed and traded on public chains Always been enamored by the vision of truly democratized global financial services, and this will be a big step in the right direction. Crypto composability and global assets are going unlock killer financial products Enjoyed the post from Vlad below. Worth the read. (OO #235#)