been kicking this around for a few months so putting it down here. just where my head is at going into midterms trump and bessent have every incentive to keep stocks propped up through november. it’s basically the only talking point left. and for the most part they’ve pulled it off the question i keep coming back to is what happens after? two paths and they both kind of land in the same spot if it’s a blue wave, that’s a built in excuse. "stocks were great until america elected democrats, now we can’t pass the agenda, look at your 401k, blame them." let some air out, hit the reset button if republicans hold or it’s a split, there’s still no election for two years. politicians care about reelection and consolidating power, red blue green whatever. so why keep pushing stimulus and "fighting" inflation at the same time (iran, tariffs you don’t even hear about anymore) when you don’t have to. take the foot off the gas, let things cool, then turn it back on in the back half of 27 into 28 when the next election starts to matter doesn’t mean straight down. could just be chop, down a few percent, who knows the counter is seasonality. choppy and uncertain going into midterms is normal, and the year after midterms has historically been the best of the four year cycle. so i’m holding both of these in my head at the same time note all the above was stock related. for crypto specifically: i think the bottom is in, so we bottomed faster than last cycle, and i don’t think the four year cycle is the guidepost it used to be. but looking at the btc chart it feels like we need at least one flush to scare people before the next leg. not "up only" from here my plan is simple. if btc gets into the mid to high 70s i’m calling that good enough and buying whatever spot alts i haven’t bought yet. if it keeps going past that, i either cut or hold and wait. those are the two outcomes overwhelming majority off my book has been spot zcash for months and that isn’t changing. i did sell a bunch of other stuff recently so i have real cash for the first time in a while. fully aware that might be pushing me toward wanting a dip so i'm a bit biased. anyway that’s the macro larp for today.