NEW ODD LOTS - DARRELL DUFFIE ON SURGING BOND YIELDS & WHAT POLICYMAKERS CAN DO ABOUT IT At Jackson Hole, @TheStalwart & I speak with the one and only @DuffieDarrell about what's been going on in the bond market, including expanded UST buybacks

NEW ODD LOTS - ADAM POSEN ON THE FED & MORE We're still rolling out the Jackson Hole episodes, in this one, @AdamPosen speaks to @TheStalwart & I about Warsh's speech and why there's a risk of things getting "messy" for the Fed

NEW ODD LOTS: @tracyalloway and I talk to Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid about the first Jackson Hole of the Warsh era. We also talk about the conference’s theme, bond yields, the risks of not fighting inflation more aggressively, and more.

We have written extensively about how forecasted AI IT and AI Datacenter capex will drive a record breaking amount of funding needs and an unprecedented growth in debt issuance. By the end of this year, cumulative lifetime AI Capex will have reached nearly $3T USD and we expect this number to grow to $11T+ by the late 2020s, with total outstanding AI Debt reaching $7T+. 2026 will be the first year in which AI Debt Financing becomes the second largest asset related debt market, after only the US Residential Mortgage Market. It is also the last year in which total AI related debt issuance will be less than 10% of total US Fixed Income Issuance (this includes state and federal bonds, MBS/RMBS, corporate bonds, agency, muni and ABS). (1/3)🧵

NEW ODD LOTS: Dangote Group episode @tracyalloway and I talk to 'How Africa Works' author @JoeStudwell about the rise of Dangote, the IPO of the refinery business, and why it's a landmark moment in the continent's economic developmental history

NEW ODD LOtS: How big tech companies totally missed their biggest backlash ever @tracyalloway and I talk to @jasminewsun about how an industry got completely blindsided by the datacenter opposition

NEW ODD LOTS What happens if AI goes right? @tracyalloway and I talk to famed philosopher Nick Bostrom about what we’ll do if AI solves every human problem and there’s no area where we can do better than machines

Interesting tension right now with the new Fed Chair emphasizing less forward guidance and more market ‘independence,’ while the US Treasury Secretary is focused on doing whatever can to lower long-term yields

I think a lot of people still don't understand the scale of debt issuance by the hyperscalers. They're on pace to be as sizeable in the IG bond market as the big banks within a few years

NEW ODD LOTS: What the OpenAI/HF Attack Tells Us About AI Danger @tracyalloway and I talk to @Miles_Brundage about everything we've learned since the incident, and what it means now for further safely developing the technology

NEW ODD LOTS: A historic El Niño Is Brewing That Could Cost The World Trillions @tracyalloway and I talk to Dartmouth's Justin S. Mankin, who explains why this year's could be the big one, and how economists under-count the damage the pattern can cause

NEW ODD LOTS: Trucking is booming again. And the drivers are still unhappy. @tracyalloway return to one of our favorite beats, with the great @lostisreed to learn why a host of supply- and demand-side factors are causing mile rates to surge once more.

Some personal news... Today I'm excited to announce the launch of the Housing Frame, a Substack where I'll be analyzing the economy through a housing lens. My debut piece is the Housing Recession is Over. Follow and subscribe here: