New @ThePeelPod with Matt Murphy @mmurph at @MenloVentures We go inside Menlo's pre-revenue, pre-launch Anthropic investment and how they emerged as a top AI firm. Matt might be the only person who invested pre-revenue in both Google and Anthropic, and we talk through when to break the rules in venture, the three LP's that made over $1B each on the $500M Anthropic SPV Menlo raised without being able to show a single financial, Menlo's barbell investing approach, and why today isn't like 1999. Full episode here + links below. Timestamps: 0:00 How to read Anthropic's S-1 1:21 Do AI companies actually make money? 2:23 Google didn't want ads. Anthropic didn't plan on enterprise. 4:51 Bending the rules to back Anthropic pre-revenue, pre-launch 9:50 You can't be a leading AI firm without a top model company 12:00 Leading the Series D at $18B six months later 14:22 Why the best researchers chose Dario 15:25 Menlo's first-ever SPV, nearly the size of the fund 16:44 The LP meeting that sparked a $500M SPV 19:18 Raising at $18B without showing financials 20:04 Three LP's made $1B+ each 24:23 Why Matt joined Menlo in 2015 26:00 Rebuilding Menlo over the past decade 32:49 Venture as a team sport 35:45 How to keep a challenger mentality 38:15 Why VC firms decay 41:31 The Anthology Fund: OpenRouter, Wispr, Goodfire 42:27 Ownership vs. backing the best 46:10 Why this isn't 1999 48:06 Frontier vs. open weight models 51:29 The barbell portfolio strategy 53:54 Avoiding the messy middle between early and growth 55:07 How to spot a category leader 57:18 Fortune 5000 AI adoption: "almost none" 59:06 Menlo is in 10 of 70+ neolabs: Skild, Chai, Axiom 1:02:13 Where $1B AI startup raises actually go 1:04:18 Phase 1 vs. Phase 2 of AI 1:06:26 What the AI IPOs mean for venture 1:09:11 What Matt does differently after 25 years 1:10:52 The Alex Smith lesson