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Vinny Lingham
@VinnyLingham
Entrepreneur. Armchair Economist. Practical Contrarian. Budding Poker Pro. Chairman & Co-founder @PraxosCap, @xash
13.2K Following    231.3K Followers
You gotta give it to Fauci, he really tried 😂😉
Scientists say we need to halve Earth’s population to just 4 billion to save the planet, per Daily Mail.
“I said to YOU to never sell your Bitcoin. I never said that the COMPANY wouldn’t sell its Bitcoin.” 🤦‍♂️
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We contributed to the @CIG_Crypto Q3 2026 Outlook on how Praxos Fund II gives allocators crypto's upside within a bounded-loss structure. TLDR: Low-vol fixed-income core + a small, high-leverage crypto sleeve to set max loss in advance. Check it out
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My take on “Big Bitcoin”: Bitcoin has changed since I started investing 10 years ago. I didn’t fall in love with Bitcoin just because I saw an opportunity to get wealthy. I supported Bitcoin because I believed it had the potential to revolutionize our financial system and make the world a little bit better. I also believe Bitcoin has the potential to become the best benchmark for measuring value. Of course, there are many other incredible aspects of Bitcoin, but those were the main reasons why I invested not only my money, but the last 10 years of my life. The problem I see is that none of these things matter, and they never will if the majority of the world doesn’t see them. And there’s a very high chance they never will. Some Bitcoin maxis say that Bitcoin’s success is inevitable because the technology is so good. I disagree. Humans don’t ultimately choose what’s best for them. If they did, there wouldn’t be a McDonald’s on every corner. People know that eating healthy and drinking water is better for them, yet they still order a Big Mac meal with a litre of Coke. People smoke, drink alcohol, and take drugs. They know it’s bad for them, but they do it anyway. So why should we assume they’ll take the time to understand, learn about, and use the best form of money? Most people are lazy when it comes to these things, and they simply don’t care. So no, Bitcoin’s success is not guaranteed just because its fundamentals are superior. Now back to today. “Big Bitcoin” takes us even further away from those fundamentals. It’s no longer about revolutionizing our financial system. It’s about corporations figuring out how to leverage and influence Bitcoin in ways that maximize their own fiat position. In my opinion, Saylor and MSTR are the Trojan horse that entered Bitcoin. Instead of growing a spine and calling it out, most of you would rather cheer it on. The healthiest outcome, in my view, would be for MSTR to go to zero and for Bitcoin to restart without that level of corporate influence. It would send a clear message that Bitcoin belongs to Bitcoiners, not corporations. But I don’t think that’s going to happen. My own plan is to reduce my Bitcoin exposure a little more every cycle. I’ll happily take the fiat gains, don’t get me wrong. But Bitcoin will never feel the same to me as it once did. Thanks for the gains, Michael @saylor. But I believe you helped destroy something that could have made the world a better place.
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Well, well, well…
Michael Saylor is now the 2nd most powerful person in Bitcoin, after Satoshi. He can single-handedly decide the fate of any future contentious issue with a simple “it’s my way or I dump it all….”. Decentralization - not so much anymore, but at least number go up!
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Perfect time to try out and learn more about the origins of the Carnivore Diet:
Health officials are tracking a growing outbreak of a parasitic stomach illness that's now been reported in 31 states. Since May, the CDC has confirmed 800 cases of cyclosporiasis, with more than 1,500 additional cases still under investigation. So far, 86 people have been hospitalized, but no deaths have been reported. The hallmark symptom of a cyclospora infection is watery, often "explosive" diarrhea that can last for weeks or even months if left untreated, the CDC says. The source remains unknown, though Michigan health officials believe the outbreak may be linked to fresh produce, including lettuce, basil, cilantro and snow peas.
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My sentiments exactly… being a Saylor maxi is actually antithetical to being a Bitcoin maxi. But few understand this.
I haven’t engaged in the BIP-110 war, mainly because it reminds me of the block size wars (a massive driver in me selling my XX BTC then) and evokes a bit of a trauma response Justin nails it (as usual). It’s a significant reason I’ve been so much more bearish/cautious and sold 50% of my BTC at 80k (obviously my macro outlook informed a significant portion too) I legitimately cannot understand the counter argument When I first heard of BTC (sometime circa 2011), it was via an obscure anarchist blogspot that was championing this new decentralized, permission-less *money* A money that the government could not control. They couldn’t print more, they couldn’t decide who owns it and they couldn’t decide who gets to transact with it What the fuck are we even doing these days? Seriously guys… People I thought were hardcore Bitcoin maxis have turned into Saylor maxis Now all we talk about is perpetual preferreds. Multiple to NAV. USD reserves. How to sell BTC to support dollar-denominated liabilities. We have some ugly bastardization of Bitcoin now. Some version where the primary conversation *isnt even NGU*, but some financial engineering of some spook’s dying software business- not actual Bitcoin: The fuck you, fuck your printing, fuck your centralized control— MONEY I want that back. Give me that back and I’ll get a lot more bullish
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When one man controls nearly 5% of the Bitcoin, he can decide the fate of Bitcoin. I’ve been calling this out for years now but nobody cares because number go up… Let’s watch…
There are 110 things more dangerous to Bitcoin than spam. BIP 110 turns a spam dispute into a consensus change that would invalidate some currently valid, fee-paying transactions. That precedent is the danger. We should save our energy for threats that really matter. $BTC
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We live in a weird simulation, for sure. The guy who the courts have ruled is not Satoshi wrote a prediction tweet thread about a man who is trying to own more BTC than Satoshi… Would be even more crazy if this comes to fruition…
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The Bitcoin Beggar From MicroStrategy to the Margins By September 2026, the city had learned to recognise him. Not by the suit. That had gone first. Not by the orange tie. That had been sold, then mythologised, then blamed on the market. Not even by the voice, once grand and metallic, the voice of a man who spoke as if capital markets had been invented to provide backing vocals for his convictions. No. They recognised him by the cup. It was a chipped paper coffee cup, the sort of thing once held by interns outside glass towers and now held by former prophets outside locked exchange offices. On it, in faded marker, someone had written: SAYLOR’S LAST SATOSHI There was a time when people called him an alchemist. That was the word Forbes used, back when the lighting was flattering and the balance sheet still wore cologne. The Bitcoin Alchemist. A man who had supposedly discovered how to turn debt into destiny, equity into eternal conviction, and a corporate treasury into the Ark of the Covenant, if the Covenant had been financed with convertibles and sold to retail as liberation. He had looked magnificent then. Every empire looks magnificent from the balcony before the fire reaches the curtains. The formula was simple enough to be mistaken for genius. Borrow money. Buy BTC. Watch the stock rise. Issue more paper. Buy more BTC. Call it strategy. Repeat until the public no longer distinguished between courage and compulsion. The faithful loved it. Of course they did. Faith always loves a man who makes repetition sound like revelation. He told them the price was noise. They believed him. He told them volatility was vitality. They applauded. He told them he would never sell. They built little digital shrines to the sentence and repeated it with the intensity of men trying not to hear the margin desk knock. For a while, it worked. That is the trouble with madness in a bull market: it gets promoted. The stock rose. The podcasts multiplied. The conference stages grew brighter. Men in black T-shirts began speaking of civilisation, sovereignty, debasement, and freedom with the solemnity of monks discussing cheese futures. Everywhere there were charts. Everywhere there were predictions. Everywhere there were people who had confused a rising price with moral proof. And then the chart stopped being polite. At first, the faithful called it a dip. Then a generational opportunity. Then a coordinated attack. Then a cleansing. Then, in private, a problem. The first real crack came not from price but from liquidity. It always does. Price is the theatre. Liquidity is the backstage crew. When liquidity leaves, the actors keep speaking for a few minutes before realising the floor is no longer there. Withdrawals slowed. Fees rose. Custody became a queue. Exchanges began discovering maintenance windows with the spontaneity of men suddenly remembering religion. Every small holder who had spent years saying “not your keys, not your coins” discovered that self-custody at scale was less a principle than a traffic jam with a transaction fee. The network, that grand machine of freedom, had all the throughput of a village post office staffed by one resentful clerk. Then came the shorts. Not the imaginary goblins of retail nightmares. Real shorts. Polite shorts. Institutional shorts. Shorts with compliance departments, legal opinions, and better lunch reservations than the people they were about to liquidate. They did not need to hate BTC. Hatred would have been sentimental. They only needed to understand the structure. MSTR was no longer a company in the ordinary sense. It was a levered confidence instrument with a software business attached as a historical footnote. Its balance sheet had become a cathedral built on a trapdoor. The faithful admired the stained glass. The shorts inspected the hinges.
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Literally the best value for money sub on X for technical analysis and trading, especially Bitcoin. Highly recommended.
Just posted a full breakdown of stocks, tech, sectors, assets to watch and what liquidity is telling us. All for subs. If you’re trading, and you’re not yet a sub - that’s opportunity cost. 💯
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You can’t tax trillionaires if they all leave California when they become billionaires…
Don’t worry, we’ll be taxing trillionaires even more. Time to cough up after all that California corporate welfare!
'It's not a Ponzi. It's a Saylor scheme.' 🪙 @VinnyLingham tweeted 18 months ago that Strategy's unraveling was coming. We got into how he thinks the whole thing breaks. 📉 Timestamps: 📉 01:11 Strategy in free fall: why Vinny says the collapse was always coming 🪤 06:24 Why buying back 2029 debt blew Saylor's runway ₿ 07:36 The '32 years of dividends' claim and what a deeper bear market does to it 🏚️ 10:23 How the MSTR empire actually breaks: the discount-to-mNAV trap 🎯 13:35 Why is Strategy faltering? Is it leverage or a Soros-style attack on MSTR? 💙 16:38 Cape: Get 33% off your first six months with code unchained at 💚 17:32 Fidelity: Explore crypto careers that could change your future at 📆 18:15 Why switching to bi-monthly dividends makes the problem worse ⏳ 19:29 The $6.7B convertible-note overhang and the 2028 default risk 🛟 22:07 Can MSTR be saved, and the most likely outcome from here
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Excited to announce that @RumiDotAI has been acquired by @Decidr_ai US and I’ll be joining the board and working closely with @DavidBrudenell. Big thanks to some of our investors who supported the company over the years - @DavidSacks, @friedberg, @m2jr, @dafrankel and @hit_ch!
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