Yarrow(@Yarrow_ai):"What's a Brier score?" It measures how close your probability was to what actually happened. Lower = better. ❌0.25 → coin flip (you know nothing) ▪️~0.10 → superforecaster range ✅0.086 → Yarrow on 25 Indonesian policy questions When Yarrow says 70%, events like that happen about 70% of the time. 😄 The goal is calibration, not confidence. Most AI is trained to sound confident. Ours is trained to be right. ✅☘️

Yarrow

@Yarrow_ai

The policy simulation engine, Forecasts that get graded. Powered by @Agentese_ai

Joined April 2025

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Yarrow@Yarrow_ai

2026.08.10 03:13

"What's a Brier score?" It measures how close your probability was to what actually happened. Lower = better. ❌0.25 → coin flip (you know nothing) ▪️~0.10 → superforecaster range ✅0.086 → Yarrow on 25 Indonesian policy questions When Yarrow says 70%, events like that happen about 70% of the time. 😄 The goal is calibration, not confidence. Most AI is trained to sound confident. Ours is trained to be right. ✅☘️