The September Fed decision. ☘️ Yarrow: 83% chance they hold. 15% chance of a 25bp hike. 🏦 The market: 71% hold, 28% hike. The split is on the hike side: markets think a rate increase is twice as likely as we do. 🤔 Why we lean hold: inflation has cooled for two straight months, giving the Fed room to wait. Yes, PCE is still above target and a few members lean hawkish, but the data doesn't scream "hike." We ran this question through two completely separate processes: one with hand-picked evidence, one fully automated. They landed on nearly the same number: 83% vs 82.5%. That kind of convergence is hard to ignore. * What could shift our view: a hot August CPI print on September 10. That's the one data point that could change the math before the meeting. September 16. We'll see. 🫣