Update on the Strait of Hormuz — same question, longer window, bigger disagreement. 8/20 we posted this with a September deadline. 🏦 Market: 7% VS Yarrow: 15% ☘️ Today, with a December deadline. 🏦 Market: 37.5% VS Yarrow: still 15% ☘️ The market moved. We didn't. Here's why: On August 25, Iran and Oman announced a phased corridor framework with joint mine-clearing. The market read that as normalization beginning and repriced from 7% to 37.5%. We read the same headline and checked the water. The PortWatch 7-day transit average is about 5 ships per day. A year ago it was 94. The resolution threshold is 60. We're at the third percentile of the series' own history. We've seen this movie: after the June memorandum, transits climbed from 3 to 30 in twelve days — then attacks resumed and the number dropped right back. August 18, a missile killed a chief engineer. August 24, a tanker was disabled near Oman. The corridor framework has no start date, and the US is not a party. Four more months on the calendar doesn't change what's happening on the water. Ships come back when insurance costs fall and attacks stop — not when a framework is announced. The market is pricing the headline. We're pricing the ships. 🚢 🤔 What would move us: a corridor with a start date, PortWatch above 20 for two straight weeks, and zero attacks in that window.