_Checkonchain
@_checkonchain
Bitcoin Onchain Analysis Suite @
Bitcoin Newsletter @
by @_checkmatey_ & @_alecdj
6 Following 16K Followers
bitcoin:native is back above $81k.
After almost a year of bear market rallies and lower highs, the question on a lot of people's minds is: how do we know this current rally isn’t going to fail just like the last one?
In our latest piece, @_Checkmatey_ digs into the data, presenting a confluence of evidence that we believe supports a genuine regime change out of the 2026 bear market.
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Bitcoin has been chopping sideways for several weeks, as the market digests a powerful rally off the lows.
At the same time, macro pressures are building, and Short-Term Holder profit-taking has picked up.
In our latest piece, @_Checkmatey_ examines where the current sell-side is coming from, and how it compares with the investor behaviour we typically see in early bull markets.
Get the market update ->
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If Bitcoin is transitioning into a bull market, what should we actually be watching?
In our latest piece, @_Checkmatey_ has put together a Bull Markets For Dummies guide: how bull markets progress, what causes them to eventually run out of steam, and the key onchain metrics we can use to track the journey.
Get it here →
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STH SOPR is one of our favourite metrics for spotting regime change.
In bear markets, rallies back into profit tend to get sold.
In bull markets, short sharp moves below break-even tend to become buy-the-dip setups.
The current structure is starting to look more like those early bull-market recoveries.
More in our latest piece →
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The Bitcoin market is chopping wood just below the 50-week MA as it digests a moderate up-tick in profit taking by both Short and Long-Term Holders.
In our latest piece, @_Checkmatey_ examines why Bitcoin is holding ‘high-and-tight’ below the Bears’ Last Stand, and what the latest profit-taking, ETF flows and futures positioning tell us about the market.
Get the full article & market update video with a Premium subscription →
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On-chain analysis of bitcoin holders suggests today's environment is similar to the 2023 breakout that sent bitcoin from $20k to $125k.
For the first time since the ATH, short-term holders have positions that are meaningfully in profit, improving buyer sentiment. @_checkonchain
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The BTC mean reversion index proved itself to be tremendously valuable during the bear. I’m equally excited to use it for navigating the bull market.
Bitcoin is taking another run at $82.5k, a level that could confirm a meaningful regime change if cleared.
In our latest piece, @_Checkmatey_ examines why recent price action looks increasingly different from the 2025-26 bear, and what the “Quiet and Trending” framework tells us about the early stages of a new bull cycle.
Read today with a Premium subscription →
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Bitcoin is holding its ground just below the 50-week moving average at $82k, which is the level we consider to be the Bears’ Last Stand.
In our latest piece, @_Checkmatey_ examines why Bitcoin has paused below this level, and what previous bear-to-bull transitions can teach us about what happens from here.
Read today with a Premium subscription →
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Bitcoin is +1sd from the short-term holder MVRV price mean of 67k. Just the 5th time since 2023 it’s broken into the blue. $BTC
Bitcoin’s rally past 77k has now pushed through the Short Term Holder cost basis, 200DMA and True Market Mean.
More importantly, spot demand has followed through on the initial short squeeze, adding weight to the case that this could be more than just another bear market rally.
In our latest piece, @_Checkmatey_ assesses the evidence for a bullish transition, and what he still needs to see for final confirmation.
Get the full article + 40 minute Market Update video with a 7-Day Free Trial - you’ll find the link at the top of the article →
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Here’s the first 13 minutes of our latest Premium Market Update, where @_Checkmatey_ breaks down Bitcoin’s rip past $69k and what the data looks like following the largest short liquidation in history. Watch the full 38 minute video with our 7-Day Free Trial:
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Bitcoin just ripped through $69k, triggering the largest short liquidation event in history.
In our latest piece, @_Checkmatey_ examines the short squeeze and what needs to happen next for a more sustained recovery.
We’ve opened up a 7-Day Free Trial to the newsletter - you’ll find the link to activate at the top of the article →
Hope you enjoy it!
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Get the full article & video with our 7 Day Free Trial!
Short Squeeze!
My latest analysis piece hitting the inbox for @_checkonchain subscribers, covering the rally as Bitcoin finally wakes up.
We've also opened a 7-day free trial for folks keen to see what we're up to at Checkonchain behind the paywall.
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Bitcoin has been chopping around $64k for more than two months, with volatility compressing to extreme lows.
The 30-day price range is now just 5.6%, one of the narrowest on record. Historically, periods of such low volatility tend to occur in very late-stage bear markets, and more often in early bull markets.
In our latest newsletter piece, @_Checkmatey_ examines this volatility squeeze, how it compares with similar periods in Bitcoin’s history, and the onchain supply structure developing around the 200-week moving average →
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The Coldcard incident resulted in Long-Term Holder supply declining by ~233k BTC, a 1.38% fall from its recent all-time high.
With such a meaningful event, an important question is whether the emergency migration of coins has skewed the onchain metrics we use to analyse Bitcoin.
In our latest newsletter piece, @_Checkmatey_ documents the size and scale of the change across network activity and onchain supply structure, and assesses how it influences several key onchain metrics →
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The Bitcoin price has been edging higher in recent weeks, after recovering the 200-week moving average around $63k. The market did experience a weekly close below the 200WMA towards the end of of June, but has since held above it for four consecutive weeks.
Attention now turns to the next key level: the Short-Term Holder cost basis at $68k, where the average recent BTC buyer returns to a state of profit.
In our latest newsletter piece, @_Checkmatey_ examines why this transition has historically been an important milestone in bear market recoveries, and what the latest onchain data suggests about investor behaviour →
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In April 2024, @_alecdj & I planted our flag and launched the @_checkonchain newsletter.
We had many sub-milestones, but the big one was to be the #1# paid substack in the Bitcoin category.
Very humbled and thankful for every single one of or subscribers for helping us get there
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Bear markets aren't just for finding bottoms.
They're also one of the best times to model where the next cycle could go.
In our latest newsletter piece, @_Checkmatey_ explains why long-term price anchors become especially useful during bear markets, and how projecting their historical growth rates forward can help build a framework for estimating future cycle highs →
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Strategy has sold 3,588 BTC.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen $6.5B of outflows over the last eight weeks.
Despite this wave of sell-side pressure, Bitcoin has continued to find buyers.
In our latest newsletter piece, @_Checkmatey_ examines where that demand is coming from, what onchain data reveals about investor behaviour, and why signs of seller exhaustion continue to build →
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