_Checkonchain
@_checkonchain
Bitcoin Onchain Analysis Suite @
Bitcoin Newsletter @
by @_checkmatey_ & @_alecdj
6 Following 16.2K Followers
@_checkonchain Great chart. Looking forward to watching the subscriber video in the AM.
One of the hardest parts of a Bitcoin bull market isn't surviving the dips. It's watching price rally without you.
FOMO often leads investors to buy too much at local highs, only to panic sell when the next correction arrives.
Now that we're seeing a pullback towards $80k, the question is whether this is another reason to be fearful, or an opportunity to think differently.
In our latest piece, @_Checkmatey_ explores the psychology of FOMO, lessons from his own experience since 2019, and how onchain data can help investors navigate the current market.
Get it here ->
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bitcoin:native continues to stair-step higher, without giving sidelined investors much of a dip to buy.
At the same time, futures leverage continues to decline, funding rates remain below 4%/yr, and Long-Term Holders are largely sitting on their hands.
In our latest newsletter, @_Checkmatey_ examines the market structure behind the move, and lays out his roadmap for the next stage of Bitcoin’s recovery.
Get it here ->
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For the first time since Bitcoin’s October 2025 ATH, we’re seeing multi-billion-dollar weekly ETF inflows again.
Around $2.1B flowed into the ETFs last week, signalling that this pool of investors has started taking notice of Bitcoin once again.
In our latest piece, @_Checkmatey_ examines the return of ETF demand and what the onchain, futures and ETF data tells us about the current Bitcoin market.
Get it here ->
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Even in a Bitcoin bull market, the odds of an up or down day are roughly 50:50.
The difference is that a very small number of outsized positive days drive almost all of the cycle’s returns. Only ~3% of trading days account for 100% of the bull market gains.
In our latest piece, @_Checkmatey_ breaks down what the statistics tell us about how Bitcoin bull markets actually trade.
Get the Article here ->
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bitcoin:native just ripped past $83k, pushing through what @_Checkmatey_ has dubbed the “Bears Last Stand.”
In our latest piece, James breaks down the setup and what he’s watching next →
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Higher.
bitcoin:native is back above $81k.
After almost a year of bear market rallies and lower highs, the question on a lot of people's minds is: how do we know this current rally isn’t going to fail just like the last one?
In our latest piece, @_Checkmatey_ digs into the data, presenting a confluence of evidence that we believe supports a genuine regime change out of the 2026 bear market.
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Bitcoin has been chopping sideways for several weeks, as the market digests a powerful rally off the lows.
At the same time, macro pressures are building, and Short-Term Holder profit-taking has picked up.
In our latest piece, @_Checkmatey_ examines where the current sell-side is coming from, and how it compares with the investor behaviour we typically see in early bull markets.
Get the market update ->
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If Bitcoin is transitioning into a bull market, what should we actually be watching?
In our latest piece, @_Checkmatey_ has put together a Bull Markets For Dummies guide: how bull markets progress, what causes them to eventually run out of steam, and the key onchain metrics we can use to track the journey.
Get it here →
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STH SOPR is one of our favourite metrics for spotting regime change.
In bear markets, rallies back into profit tend to get sold.
In bull markets, short sharp moves below break-even tend to become buy-the-dip setups.
The current structure is starting to look more like those early bull-market recoveries.
More in our latest piece →
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The Bitcoin market is chopping wood just below the 50-week MA as it digests a moderate up-tick in profit taking by both Short and Long-Term Holders.
In our latest piece, @_Checkmatey_ examines why Bitcoin is holding ‘high-and-tight’ below the Bears’ Last Stand, and what the latest profit-taking, ETF flows and futures positioning tell us about the market.
Get the full article & market update video with a Premium subscription →
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On-chain analysis of bitcoin holders suggests today's environment is similar to the 2023 breakout that sent bitcoin from $20k to $125k.
For the first time since the ATH, short-term holders have positions that are meaningfully in profit, improving buyer sentiment. @_checkonchain
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The BTC mean reversion index proved itself to be tremendously valuable during the bear. I’m equally excited to use it for navigating the bull market.
Bitcoin is taking another run at $82.5k, a level that could confirm a meaningful regime change if cleared.
In our latest piece, @_Checkmatey_ examines why recent price action looks increasingly different from the 2025-26 bear, and what the “Quiet and Trending” framework tells us about the early stages of a new bull cycle.
Read today with a Premium subscription →
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Bitcoin is holding its ground just below the 50-week moving average at $82k, which is the level we consider to be the Bears’ Last Stand.
In our latest piece, @_Checkmatey_ examines why Bitcoin has paused below this level, and what previous bear-to-bull transitions can teach us about what happens from here.
Read today with a Premium subscription →
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Bitcoin is +1sd from the short-term holder MVRV price mean of 67k. Just the 5th time since 2023 it’s broken into the blue. $BTC
Bitcoin’s rally past 77k has now pushed through the Short Term Holder cost basis, 200DMA and True Market Mean.
More importantly, spot demand has followed through on the initial short squeeze, adding weight to the case that this could be more than just another bear market rally.
In our latest piece, @_Checkmatey_ assesses the evidence for a bullish transition, and what he still needs to see for final confirmation.
Get the full article + 40 minute Market Update video with a 7-Day Free Trial - you’ll find the link at the top of the article →
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Here’s the first 13 minutes of our latest Premium Market Update, where @_Checkmatey_ breaks down Bitcoin’s rip past $69k and what the data looks like following the largest short liquidation in history. Watch the full 38 minute video with our 7-Day Free Trial:
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Bitcoin just ripped through $69k, triggering the largest short liquidation event in history.
In our latest piece, @_Checkmatey_ examines the short squeeze and what needs to happen next for a more sustained recovery.
We’ve opened up a 7-Day Free Trial to the newsletter - you’ll find the link to activate at the top of the article →
Hope you enjoy it!
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