If you went through ‘06 cycle, this year feels like déjà vu.
In ‘06 at this point, W. Bush approve = 37%. Trump at 38%.
Generic ballot in Sept. of ‘06: D+6.5, Generic Ballot now: D+6.5
In both years: Unpopular war, Members mired in sex scandals. (Sherwood, Foley then; Miller, Mills now).