Amy Walter
@amyewalter
Publisher & Editor-in-Chief, Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. Cycling enthusiast. Lover of all things summer.
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Voters competitive CD’s polled for @CookPolitical see election not just as a referendum on Trump (who’s underwater by 16pts), but as a repudiation of the entire political system. Indies prefer candidate who will “reform entire system” vs serve as a “check on Trump”by 39pts.
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New poll of 37 most competitive CDs (ie, races that will decide control of Congress) for @CookPolitical by NewRiver Strategies & GS Strategy Group. These CDs, on average, voted for Trump by 5pts - now prefer a generic Dem by 2 pts. (7 point swing to Dems since ‘24). Shows obvious pathway to majority for D’s, as well as a ceiling (universe remains the 25 or so R-held seats that voted Trump by 10 pts or less).
But, to me, the most interesting finding was that these voters see this election not just as a referendum on Trump (who’s underwater by 16pts), but as a repudiation of the entire political system. Among indies, just 20% prefer a candidate to be a check on Trump - 59% want a candidate who will change system overall.
This also suggests that these voters would want a Dem-led Congress that focuses more on an agenda that tackles corruption + institutional rot than one that focuses solely on Trump & his overreach.
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Dear food/beverage industry: just because you CAN make it pumpkin spice doesn’t mean you NEED to make it pumpkin spice.
Sean, I raise you a Blake Farenthold with Patrick Flanagan…
"Sean, how weird can things get in wave years?"
"Well, let me tell you..."
That and corruption. It’s how you can meet voters anger about the economy without having to defend tariffs or Iran.
Rs running against “big insurance” and health care costs — fighting on Dem turf — one of the less appreciated ad trends this year
In recent era, midterm “waves” have been relegated to purple seats/states. Pushing into deep partisan territory is rare. This cycle the combo of tariffs, rural health care cuts, & diesel fuel gives Dems their first real chance to win back rural/farm state voters. But, if they come up short in this environment, hard to make the case that these seats/states can come back in play anytime in the near future.
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New polling conducted of TX Hispanic voters for @CookPolitical and @Univision finds Trump’s ‘24 coalition in shambles. Almost 1 in 5 Trump ‘24 voters now disapprove of POTUS. Talarico leads Paxton by 33. In Rio Grande Valley, Dems lead generic by 14.
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To my fellow summer lovers out there, think of this weekend, not as the “end” but as an opportunity to remind ourselves why this season is the best one of all!!
Cc: @jmart , @lieslhickey
Correct. To me, the biggest question is GOP turnout and a bottoming out with independents that could turn a Trump +10 into a more competitive R+2 or better electorate.
Two things can be true at once:
Many of the underlying metrics for the GOP can be worse than 2018 - Trump approval, specials, primary turnout, and...
Voting continuing to get more partisan since 2018 such that Trump +10 or more states & districts are virtually impregnable
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🎧 NEW Editors Roundtable: Is the Senate map really still expanding? @amyewalter asks @JessicaTaylor for a reality check.
Let’s see how many battleground CD/state Rs do the same. My bet is it will be close to zero.
Trump and Dems both making midterms a referendum on the president’s performance
The GOP challenge isn’t that MAGA fans stay home; 2/3 of MAGA R’s in Fox poll said they were “extremely motivated” to vote. But, non-MAGA R’s excitement to vote was net 20 pts lower. Why? These are the R’s most unhappy w/ economy + Trump handling of it.
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.@SpeakerJohnson previews the midterm convention: "The president's gonna look right in the camera and say, I am on the ballot. Because even though his name isn't, right, his administration, his legacy, the America-first agenda is."
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People driving cars, I BEG OF YOU, pay better attention to what is all around you, not just right in front of you. No matter where you are going, it is not as important as the risk you put others into.
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Another bicyclist struck, with significant injuries reported.
The expect circumstances are unclear but initial reports suggest a cyclist was struck on the 1700 block of N. Quebec Street, north of W-L High School, around 12:30 p.m. and taken to the hospital by medics.
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Thank you for this fantastic conversation, Lisa!
Today on the show:
Credibility: “The most important thing you can have anywhere, but especially in this town, is your credibility & your reputation. It takes a long time to build it up and it doesn't take very long to lose it.” — Amy Walter (@amyewalter) of @CookPolitical
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That’s the big takeaway for me as well. Dems continue to punt on Florida- a state that has growing influence in electoral college and should - on paper - be competitive
The good news for Rs: D chances in Florida have fallen from ~20% to ~10% with Nixon instead of Vindman. tbh I think the model was overrating Vindman because of his fundraising. But this is another cycle where Ds might be punting on what used to be an iconic swing state.
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In partnership w/ @AdImpact_Pol, @CookPolitical’s been tracking broadcast TV ads run in every House and Senate race that we rate as competitive for the fall campaign.
The most cited topic in both Dem/GOP ads this primary season: Donald Trump.
45% of all ad spending on House/SEN races rated Toss Up or Lean was spent on ads that featured Trump.
67% of all ad spending in primaries that we don’t project as being contested mentioned Trump.
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The electability argument in primaries rarely wins. But, in WI, Hongs decision to make a national media push exposed her weaknesses that elites knew but broader public didn’t.
In WI, Hong was lumped in with El-Sayed as a progressive insurgent, but she lacked his candidate skills/campaign infrastructure; in MN, Flanagan helped the most by Craig’s Laken Riley vote. In CT, Larsen lost b/c of age, not ideology.
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Last night's primary results were a reminder that candidate and campaign quality matter – a lot.
Read our post-primary analysis from @amyewalter, @JessicaTaylor and @ercovey.
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One of the underrated winners of the Crowley win in WIGOV: Dem Rebecca Cooke in WI-03. This light-red seat is a must-win for Dems and she would’ve been burdened w/ having to separate from Hong.
Miller’s decision to stay in the race moves OH-07 from Likely R to Toss Up. Read @ercovey ‘s write up here.
GOP Rep. Max Miller, who is facing allegations of domestic abuse toward his ex-wife and two-year-old daughter, is still running for reelection. We are moving his race from Likely Republican to Toss Up.
Read @ercovey's analysis.
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