Amy Walter(@amyewalter):Correct. To me, the biggest question is GOP turnout and a bottoming out with independents that could turn a Trump +10 into a more competitive R+2 or better electorate.

Amy Walter

@amyewalter

Publisher & Editor-in-Chief, Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. Cycling enthusiast. Lover of all things summer.

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Amy Walter@amyewalter

2026.09.03 11:38

Correct. To me, the biggest question is GOP turnout and a bottoming out with independents that could turn a Trump +10 into a more competitive R+2 or better electorate.

Patrick Ruffini@PatrickRuffini

2026.09.03 10:49

Two things can be true at once: Many of the underlying metrics for the GOP can be worse than 2018 - Trump approval, specials, primary turnout, and... Voting continuing to get more partisan since 2018 such that Trump +10 or more states & districts are virtually impregnable