Sometimes you win by just not participating
Case to be made that current crypto risk on is nearing the end
feels like unknown unknown black swan szn
and it's kind of hard to prepare for that by definition
remember when ppl were eager to buy 10/10 blood (of those not wiped out) and then most stuff was trading below 10/10 wicks months later
google and pepe down similar amounts from local highs
and ppl seem more eager to bid pepe
so basically good companies that beat earnings but had mixed guidance down way more than coins that were hacked and being directly sold open market on the largest hack in history
only $2b of $6b frozen so far, which is 2-3x size of next biggest hack (bybit)
yeah, ppl will prob get comped for it but now trifecta of onchain defi, cold wallets, and centralized crypto venues all stained by hacks
wall of worry not climbed
Show more
The bottom on the AI trade happened following the hysteria around Anth's "underwhelming" revenue but before the S-1 came out
since then, have seen capital flow back into semis, and now memory with the blowout SKHY earnings last night
however, ambiguous spot for risk with FOMC later today, midterms under way, and fairly imminent Anth IPO which likely siphons some capital out of more speculative end of AI segments; and may to a lesser extent cap flows near-term to semis, memory, mag7 as mutual/hedge funds, retail, indices rebalance exposure to accomodate a trillion+ company
on the crypto side, most alts have retraced quite a bit last week or two; but tbh no real appetite for them here as capital seems to have shifted back to AI segments (semis, memory, neos, etc); and in general, think that the recent bout of crypto risk-on needs a period of retracement/settling; BTC isn't helping either as alts need it to show strength (or at least stability) which is not happening > $80k; any trades i take in crypto near-term will likely be event driven
regarding onchain, idk tbh; seeing bullishness on the timeline simply because vlad mentioned RH's onchain business (very much in passing tbh) which led to a bit of relief in cashcat, pons, ai and a few onchain low caps; at the moment, i don't see why this should lead to a prolonged influx of capital back onchain; onchain data flows/volumes/txs don't suggest any type of capital rotation returning but will listen to the data if things change
Show more
Case to be made that current crypto risk on is nearing the end
never understood people doubling up on crypto exposure in their equity holdings
you prob already have plenty; try to get away from more financial exposure to growth of speculative trading activities
*ROBINHOOD 3Q EPS 51C, EST. 56C
*ROBINHOOD 3Q NET REV. $1.42B, EST. $1.44B
*ROBINHOOD 3Q CRYPTO REV. $120M, EST. $114.1M
$HOOD
3 trading days later we're back at $100
no strong opinion from here tbh; but a nice 25% trade (unlevered) completed
ok that's enough, buying some here
Since "black monday" where trad markets were going to hell but crypto was going to miraculously keep performing,
semis and neoclouds have had double digit % bounces and crypto has gone nowhere/down
Case to be made that current crypto risk on is nearing the end
$81 was literally bottom tick; you were never down on this trade
buying multi-sigma down day with multi-sigma etf buy pressure turned out well
surprise
ok that's enough, buying some here
Nice day on chip
Sold the pump in mid-oct well above 0.06 and then reentered in low 0.04s before a nice 25% day
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
Show more
also soxx at 200d MA
easy trade invalidation
wonder if latest spike in soxl flows sets the bottom again (4z +ve flow last 1w)
last time was week of april 10th, 2025 (pico bottom before run from $45 to $300)
wonder if latest spike in soxl flows sets the bottom again (4z +ve flow last 1w)
last time was week of april 10th, 2025 (pico bottom before run from $45 to $300)
ok that's enough, buying some here
ok that's enough, buying some here
took an hour but rotated the api keys across all railway projects
did some forensics and found i got hit by unauthorized spend on one account for $3.96
might possibly never recover from this
dario be like "jam it through asap"
BREAKING: Anthropic to publicly file for IPO as early as Friday, per YF
Update: It's turning into internet destruction like the world has never seen. And it isn't even getting started/major financial institutions and companies ARE NOT EVEN RESPONDING or taking it seriously.
Show more