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Oil is up about 87% this year, but the bond market isn't pricing an inflation scare đ
From Dec 31 to Oct 27, 10-year real yields climbed 0.71 points to 2.64%, while inflation pricing moved just 0.10 points. That means almost 90% of this year's rise in the 10-year is real yields, at levels not seen since 2008.
BMTV's Sean Hagan says that's what tight money looks like. The thing to watch is whether inflation pricing starts catching up to oil đ
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Bitcoin is trading 44% below its power law trend, a long-term model that plots price against bitcoin's age đ
Refit with today's data, that trend sits near $144,000.
The version published in 2019 would put it near $188,000.
The model has missed on the level, but not the direction. Every time bitcoin fell this far below trend, it was higher a year later, four for four.
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