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GDP
@bookwormengr
AI model & hardware co-design, Inference economics Safe super intelligence for all All views strictly personal. No investment advice, dummies!
Joined July 2010
13.3K Following    19.8K Followers
Anthropic will likely be a 2T company on day of IPO. Despite some issues for new data centers that may happen, there is going to be ample compute that benefits from 2027 onwards to Anthropic in reducing its operating expenses. The only thing that meaningfully impact in future is Gemini staring to take meaningful share along with Meta Muse. Short of that Anthropic is pretty fine!!!!
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If Anthropic’s valuation drops below $1 trillion in the event of an IPO — I’m going to say it probably shouldn’t go public. There’s been a meaningful amount of volatility in markets. That could last a while. The buy side has been pretty stung, deleveraging meaningfully, with the potential for more. That adds volatility to public equity markets. The most recent jobs data and growth metrics prop up the macro — giving way to another rate hike. Growth is supposed to slow against that backdrop, with liquidity tightening. What’s more, a blue wave could still portend a debt ceiling debate next year that could keep rates elevated in the long end. Conditions are expected to tighten further. Yet companies have been successful in raising capital in smaller increments and keeping spending plans modest. With equity and debt market still very open (the VIX has not hit alarming levels by any stretch), and $4.5 billion in private capital dry powder on the sidelines, they are better off waiting at a value under $1 trillion.
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