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GDP
@bookwormengr
AI model & hardware co-design, Inference economics Safe super intelligence for all All views strictly personal. No investment advice, dummies!
13.2K Following    19.8K Followers
Brilliant!!! What a gift to every budding engineer. Let me repeat nth time: more people will enter STEM due to AI, not less.
During pre-release testing, Claude Fable 5.2 and Claude Mythos 5.2 worked on ambitious projects in many different fields. Here are a few. From a one-paragraph prompt, Fable 5.2 designed three working electronic devices, including this home voice assistant hub.
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Investing use case of “AI for Science” @shyamalanadkat
Been running Opus 5.5 agents over the notebooks of Gauss, Riemann, Hilbert and Grothendieck. around 12,000 pages so far. Heres the best finding so far: Riemann's 1860 shock wave paper is famous for getting the energy part wrong however his unpublished sheets at Göttingen have it right the Rankine Hugoniot conditions a decade or two before Rankine and Hugoniot plus results usually dated 19061937, all in his own notation. A second sheet in another folder has the same physics. There are probably thousands of potential undiscovered stuff in the research papers of the smartest ever to live imo all of them should be made public and reviewed by ai years of work can probably be transcribed by agents in days
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Interesting thought process to arrive at same conclusion as mine on AI overbuild. For now you can blame it on inefficiency. By end of 2027 you can not. Quote: “DeepSeek, for example, on a GB300, monetizes at 34 bucks an hour. If there was infinite demand at 34 bucks an hour, then GB300s would sell for that amount. But in practice, they sell for 12 to 15. Sometimes even less."
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Why do GB300 GPUs rent for just $12-15/hour when serving DeepSeek can generate $34/hour? Morph's @skeptrune argues the AI infrastructure boom has an overlooked problem: there aren't enough customers to buy all the inference capacity being built. "All of OpenRouter is probably 16 racks of GB300 at most, which is not a lot of compute. There’s tens of thousands of racks available in the world." "If you were to build a 20 megawatt data center and you wanted to just sell the tokens for that, there's less than 1,000 companies in the world that would actually have the appetite to buy tokens from you. You can't sell a gigawatt of compute as inference. There’s not enough demand." "DeepSeek, for example, on a GB300, monetizes at 34 bucks an hour. If there was infinite demand at 34 bucks an hour, then GB300s would sell for that amount. But in practice, they sell for 12 to 15. Sometimes even less." "You can't just turn on a GPU and then find a customer on the other side that’ll let you monetize at 34 bucks an hour. We need more people to build software and nice applications that use these tokens." @morphllm
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And now Ilya is on the outside, just like the rest of us, watching the singularity happen without him.
You have to feel a little bad for Ilya at this point. He, perhaps more than anyone, kicked off the current AI arms race by leaving DeepMind to join OpenAI back in 2015. He chose to stay during the first wave of departures for Anthropic, then launched a failed coup against Sam after realizing that he was not being "consistently candid". This eventually led to him getting kicked out of OpenAI, but instead of joining Anthropic like everyone else, he decided to start his own company that would not pursue product in the meanwhile. Now it's late 2026, and frontier models at both Anthropic and OpenAI are significantly accelerating internal research beyond what any single brilliant researcher can do. The age of heroes is ending. The machines Ilya helped bring into existence are rapidly obsoleting the skills that once gave him such leverage, and power is concentrating in the organizations that can bring industrial might to bear on the problem of how to make AI more powerful. And now Ilya is on the outside, just like the rest of us, watching the singularity happen without him.
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Wonderful overview of servers for one of boldest chips ever.
Fearless Engineering: The CS-4 is our first engineering documentary. Through lab footage and conversations with the engineers behind each breakthrough, the film follows the creation of the CS-4, our latest wafer-scale AI system. 0:00 introducing the engineering team 1:09 Wafer-scale history 2:28 Powering the wafer 4:00 The cooling problem 4:18 Designing the cold plate 5:11 Holes in the wafer 6:33 the alignment problem 7:47 The CS-4 PRD 8:35 Designing for deployability and serviceability 11:01 Removing the motherboard 11:25 Removing internal cooling loops 11:41 inventing the power rack 12:35 A one-person lab deployment 14:03 Backpack: 50% fewer components 14:55 Connecting the compute backpack to cooling manifold 17:58 shifting Cerebras’s focus from training to inference 19:09 Building the Cerebras Cloud 20:01 CS-3 vs. CS-4 performance 20:49 3D Stacked DRAM
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Actually Jensen Sounds quite reasonable here, and argument by @JulianGewirtz is not rooted in reality. The contingency plan for if Tiwan fell will have to be at the national & international level and not company level. What Trump was doing by getting TSMC to invest in Arizona was the right move (along with bringing Memory manufacturing). Jensen was highly supportive of that. Also, GPUs last 7-8 years. There are plenty of them (20M of them) in operation already. US ecosystem already has nearly 20 times more AI compute compared to China. It is quite ridiculous, how sane judgements are being used against him. What do you expect him to do at individual level @JulianGewirtz, can you spell out?
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Jensen Huang reportedly instructed his team at Nvidia "never to think about" planning for a Taiwan contingency. Despite the fact that their business is reliant on TSMC. The Jensen-Megaspeed mess really puts these incredible — and barely-noticed — details from Stephen Witt's The Thinking Machine in a new light: Huang refuses to consider the impact on his global business if China were to blockade or invade Taiwan, despite the regular threats emanating from Beijing to do just that. “To my great surprise, Nvidia had done no contingency planning for this eventuality,” Witt writes. He quotes Deb Shoquist, Nvidia’s executive vice-president of operations: “If something happens to Taiwan and TSMC, the ramifications are so large it’s almost like asking me what I’d do if California fell into the ocean.” Huang had instructed her “never to think about this question.” —from my @nybooks essay earlier this year on Nvidia and American policy toward China: —more thoughts from me today:
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Very interesting dynamic.
No surprise that western governments are running short of China experts. People with genuine China expertise in western governments find themselves often regarded as too understanding of Chinese positions. Their expertise is exploited when expedient and more often disregarded as politically inconvenient. They usually will have a boss who is hostile to China, not by accident. Their promotion prospects will tend to depend on confidence that although expert, they are not interested in China and, preferably, hostile to China. Seeing all this happening, younger staff steer clear of making too much investment in acquiring Chinese experience and skills. Anyone with actual recent experience of living in China is likely to be excluded from ability to get a security clearance and so unemployable in government. The result is western governments flying ever blinder and more prejudiced on China.
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This can never happen in the west!
Imagine if China's top AI executive who single-handedly made the AI revolution possible through tireless pursuit of parallel processors was one day inexplicably disappeared following a lurid sex scandal alleged by intelligence agencies a week after a change in legislative power.
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Marko Rubio is not a big fan of sovereign AI. However, he is a proponent of Open Source and many labs competing. He too is weary of certain labs having too much power (PH, Ant Saga). What I expect is lot of scrutiny on GPU shipments to SEA and Middle East and ZERO NEW GPUs to China (even low power ones). He is a China Hawk, but pro competition. Plus, mid-terms have made siding with big labs a losing strategy. Expect more impact on Semis near turn. Ant and OpenAI will have ample compute, still.
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Very important point on sovereign buyers I think we may see a return to the Biden-era AI diffusion rule Democrats will push for it There is bipartisan support as well Trump will be under pressure, and Jensen's lobbying won't be effective
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Madmani received love because he has a positive vision of future and co-existence.
Wishing you a very happy Diwali, New York City.
This info from ‘Short Nvidia’ report from May looks very damning. If GPUs stayed in Malaysia and they were remotely accessed, it is still with bounds of the law. But, if they were physically shipped to China and Nvidia slept on it despite knowing, it is pretty bad. Now the question is whether it happened with Jensen and NVIDIA’s knowledge. I go not believe so, but let us wait. The most contradictory evidence so far is China refusing 2M H200s on offer. Doesn’t add up still.
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NEW: We are short Nvidia $NVDA. We believe Nvidia has a significant China problem. Please see our full report and disclosures now available on our website, link in bio.
Anthropic will likely be a 2T company on day of IPO. Despite some issues for new data centers that may happen, there is going to be ample compute that benefits from 2027 onwards to Anthropic in reducing its operating expenses. The only thing that meaningfully impact in future is Gemini staring to take meaningful share along with Meta Muse. Short of that Anthropic is pretty fine!!!!
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If Anthropic’s valuation drops below $1 trillion in the event of an IPO — I’m going to say it probably shouldn’t go public. There’s been a meaningful amount of volatility in markets. That could last a while. The buy side has been pretty stung, deleveraging meaningfully, with the potential for more. That adds volatility to public equity markets. The most recent jobs data and growth metrics prop up the macro — giving way to another rate hike. Growth is supposed to slow against that backdrop, with liquidity tightening. What’s more, a blue wave could still portend a debt ceiling debate next year that could keep rates elevated in the long end. Conditions are expected to tighten further. Yet companies have been successful in raising capital in smaller increments and keeping spending plans modest. With equity and debt market still very open (the VIX has not hit alarming levels by any stretch), and $4.5 billion in private capital dry powder on the sidelines, they are better off waiting at a value under $1 trillion.
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There is indeed some smoke here that must be investigated! Sad day for Nvidia. I hope nothing was compromised.
The NVIDIA board has launched an investigation into reports that CEO Jensen Huang was the target of a 'foreign intelligence effort.'
Yep. Mahabharata >>> Game of Thrones
I’m watching Ramayana right now, and it’s remarkable how such a well-known epic has been brought to life on such a grand scale. The vision, effort and presentation deserve real appreciation. Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey is another ambitious project, bringing Greek mythology to the big screen. But imagine Mahabharata being made with the same scale, vision and cinematic ambition. It could be bigger than Game of Thrones in almost every sense. The depth of its characters, the political intrigue, the philosophical debates, the wars and the sheer scale of its narrative are unmatched. If brought to life with the right vision, it could become one of the greatest cinematic projects in the history of world cinema. Very few epics could even come close.
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I am afraid this is Russia-gate 2.0. Exactly the same blueprint!
The story keeps getting crazier. To recap everything that has been reported so far: - The US intelligence community discovered that Jensen Huang, the CEO of the largest company in the world, was sleeping with Alice Huang, a Chinese spy and an executive at Megaspeed. (FT) - Multiple independent investigations have concluded that Megaspeed is likely a Chinese cutout, which helps Chinese companies access AI chips or circumvent export controls. (NYT and Bloomberg) - The US intelligence community also concluded that Alice Huang’s goal was to convince Jensen to lobby the U.S. government to loosen export controls on advanced AI chips. (NYT) - The intelligence community relayed this information to “a small group of top US government officials” earlier this year. (FT) - Over the last year, Jensen Huang has repeatedly lobbied the U.S. government to loosen export controls on advanced chips. @BISgov has done so, not only by permitting the export of H200 chips to China, but also not enforcing export controls that would have required a license for exports of the most advanced Blackwell chips to Megaspeed and Southeast Asia. - Although @CommerceGov leadership was presumably briefed on this information by the U.S. intelligence community, @BISgov has taken no actions to tighten controls on Megaspeed or Southeast Asia. - Megaspeed remains a preferred cloud partner of Nvidia, and continues to receive Nvidia Blackwell chips despite employing a Chinese spy who reportedly is romantically engaged with the CEO of Nvidia. - Tens of billions of dollars worth of AI chips have been exported to Southeast Asia this year alone, and Malaysia and Singapore are now two of the four largest importers of AI chips in the world. What is going on here??? We need answers. The question of who gets the most advanced AI chips in the world is literally the defining strategic question of our time. And not only does it seem like the MSS may be directly influencing the debate on export controls in the United States, but also @CommerceGov is refusing to listen to the warnings of the IC on this issue. What is a POSSIBLE good explanation for why Megaspeed is still receiving chips? Why is there not a license requirement for AI chip shipments to all of Southeast Asia? This is beyond strange at this point. The fallout from this story will be massive. Obviously, the motivations underpinning Nvidia’s policy views opposing export controls must now all be questioned. But also, how did @BISgov sit on this information and has still taken no actions? We need answers.
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The elegance of The idea of India This map should tell why democratic nation of India is such a spectacular achievement of mankind despite so much diversity is languages, culture and food. Now it is under a single currency, tax code and getting well connected. Soon it will have abundant energy due to investment in solar and wind. It is also having renaissance of ideas due to 5G, YouTube and English language. With AI to complement education and health services better days are ahead of it.
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This map shows the languages of India. It's a big task to form a coherent national identity in such a linguistically diverse nation. Source:
Happy Diwali @HuXijin_GT! If anything Indian state capacity has had astonishing growth - though lot of services have lot of scope of growth For example; 33% of the county had insurgency (communist, religious etc). It has been vastly eliminated. Abject poverty has been eliminated. 80% population qualifies for free food should they want to avail it. You can argue protein content needs to grow. It will happen. Train and highway network has vastly improved; so have count of airports and sea ports. India has astonishing level of mobile internet coverage. The government spend on healthcare has grown. You can get stent in heart for less than 300 USD (or free, if you are below poverty lines) Due to Aadhar and digital payments delivery of government subsidy programs have vastly improved - eliminating corruption. Yes, India needs far more police; judges; trains, housing and education But, yeah abundance mindset is now gripping political elites and will have phenomenal results in next two decades. Politicians are proud to show off roads and metro lines they have built. Youngsters are demanding more and fighting for it. Every time I visit my parents, I am astonished to see new developments. The town did not have highway connectivity. Now two concrete highways pass by. There is a domestic airport with regular services. Ai will help a lot with education and health. Better days are ahead…
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This *Time* magazine article portrays India as utterly worthless, with no hope for the future. What do Indian netizens think about this?
RSI via architecture-algorithm innovation vs RSI via data quality Lot of research is combining lot of existing ideas and trial and error. AI is super human at that. However, ideas are cheap and compute is still very expensive. Hence, I do not see RSI contributing much on architecture other than AI assisting great human researchers. For example, I am yet to see anything as elegant as Causal Encoder-Decider architecture or KV reuse that US labs arrived at with RSI. They have access to great models from OpenAi and Anthropic. Case in point: - Just look at KV Cache size of Inkling 2 of Thinking machine: 8.2 GB, atrocious compared to DeepSeek v4.1’s 0.8 GB for million tokens. - Its prefill also is twice as expensive as DeepSeek 4.1 Flash (17B active parameters vs 8B active parameters) My hypothesis is that most quality gains are from data and RL environment and the goals based on human needs. AI can do a lot in data quality space given how much data needs to be reviewed for quality; but its help in architecture and algorithm is limited by how many experiments we can conduct. RSI is really researcher with good taste + great models to curate data and environments. Yes, can also help with scanning thousands of research papers for ideas and help tweak optimizers or right better kernels based on performance profile. So it is indeed RI and not RSI. @teortaxesTex @tszzl @_xjdr @Guangxuan_Xiao
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RSI via architecture-algorithm innovation vs RSI via data quality Lot of research is combining lot of existing ideas and trial and error. AI is super human at that. However, ideas are cheap and compute is still very expensive. Hence, I do not see RSI contributing much on architecture other than AI assisting great human researchers. For example, I am yet to see anything as elegant as Causal Encoder-Decider architecture or KV reuse that US labs arrived at with RSI. They have access to great models from OpenAi and Anthropic. Case in point: - Just look at KV Cache size of Inkling 2 of Thinking machine: 8.2 GB, atrocious compared to DeepSeek v4.1’s 0.8 GB for million tokens. - Its prefill also is twice as expensive as DeepSeek 4.1 Flash (17B active parameters vs 8B active parameters) My hypothesis is that most quality gains are from data and RL environment and the goals based on human needs. AI can do a lot in data quality space given how much data needs to be reviewed for quality; but its help in architecture and algorithm is limited by how many experiments we can conduct. RSI is really researcher with good taste + great models to curate data and environments. Yes, can also help with scanning thousands of research papers for ideas and help tweak optimizers or right better kernels based on performance profile. So it is indeed RI and not RSI. @teortaxesTex @tszzl @_xjdr @Guangxuan_Xiao
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Happys Diwali, @tszzl 🪔 AI vs nuclear safety debate could use better framing, imho. True, regulating AI is way harder than regulating nuclear weapons; but AI on a toaster is not going to cause mushroom clouds and vaporize a million people in a second. So not the same thing. The most dangerous AI - by definition - is going to be at big labs with practically infinite compute. If they fail to align it, then we shall have issues. The smaller models at a fraction of compute - even if they try to take over the world - will be no match to intelligence of the big models, who shall crush them. Unregulated AI has its own issues - which can all be very serious - but, even the worst cyber incidents are not the worst ones of history, and the digital infrastructure is being readied. Thanks to OpenAI, Ant and other labs are enabling defenders. If you want to imagine AI will take over power infra, airplanes, missiles and weapons etc. etc. it needs discontinuity in one’s logic. The world will evolve to live with AI, the way it evolved to live with fire, electricity and hydrocarbon fuels. Yes, it won’t happen automatically and we have a role to play and lot to do. Thank OpenAi for “Patch the plane”. Also, lot of great Thought Leadership by Ant. Also, thanks to likes of Moonshot for showing responsible behavior towards cyber safety.
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once a model is produced it’s infinitely replicable and downloadable across the world, to be run on toasters. anyone who is comparing the difficulty of regulating AI to regulating nuclear weapons is selling you a crock of shit
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