If Anthropic’s valuation drops below $1 trillion in the event of an IPO — I’m going to say it probably shouldn’t go public. There’s been a meaningful amount of volatility in markets. That could last a while. The buy side has been pretty stung, deleveraging meaningfully, with the potential for more. That adds volatility to public equity markets. The most recent jobs data and growth metrics prop up the macro — giving way to another rate hike. Growth is supposed to slow against that backdrop, with liquidity tightening. What’s more, a blue wave could still portend a debt ceiling debate next year that could keep rates elevated in the long end. Conditions are expected to tighten further. Yet companies have been successful in raising capital in smaller increments and keeping spending plans modest. With equity and debt market still very open (the VIX has not hit alarming levels by any stretch), and $4.5 billion in private capital dry powder on the sidelines, they are better off waiting at a value under $1 trillion.

I agree on the thoughts about Druck’s op-ed below. I don’t care that he used AI to write it, I care that he put forward his views. As someone who covered him for years, I can tell you Druckenmiller speaking out is a rare occurrence, particularly on such a heated issue. He has long been concerned about deficits. To that end, here’s a chart I had Gemini draw up for me. And yes, I asked AI in this instance because it was faster. The point is the same — a 10 basis point rise across the curve is real money adding to a vicious cycle of net interest costs as the expense reaches $1 trillion this year.

There can be Ferraris and Fords on the highway together — why can’t there be expensive and cheap models? The ability of open source to bring down pricing is great for the consumer. I spoke to @MadisonMills22 to today’s @axios piece on @grok and Meta. A lot of investors are asking about new initiatives and probably not understanding that these new models have a great chance at enhancing the revenue opportunity for existing business lines.

Brutal showing by IBM. The direct acknowledgment that clients have shifted AI capex spend toward core infrastructure — the question is how long the “reprioritization” lasts.

CAPITAL MARKETS BOOM: I kept saying the IPO darlings would be tapping capital markets for more cash within 6 months of going public. In the case of SpaceX, it’s less than two weeks…

ANTHROPIC IS GOING PUBLIC: With SpaceX and Anthropic in the hopper for IPOs, there’s nervousness around massive lockup expirations and the continued need for capital raising for large, cash burning companies that will have the pressure of public shareholders. But let’s not forget these are unprecedented moments for unprecedented companies. Full CNBC interview with @LesliePicker who has some interesting ideas on how Anthropic can get really creative in its listing process. Would LOVE to see it!!!

GOLDMAN’S IPO THINKING: In an exclusive, the bank’s president talks me through the psychology of a mega-listing. He doesn’t speak to SpaceX or OpenAI directly, though it’s widely known they have a key role (and for Anthropic as well, and many of the bank’s clients already have ample exposure to all three private firms). Here’s how he’s thinking about the fundraisers this year — including the elevated retail allocations. Full episode for The Bridge: