I did it was just a bit slower because I had to make the chart China is the odd one out on these charts. Its 10-year has fallen from about 4.5% in 2014 to around 1.7%. That isn't a vote of confidence. It's what Japan's chart looked like in the 1990s: falling prices, too much capacity, a property bust, and households saving instead of borrowing. Low yields mean there's nowhere productive left for credit to go. It's my Tindale Trap calculus running the other way. When there is substantial it doesn’t really matter which way the imbalance runs it’s the severity of the imbalance that matters This is where the western economy dimmers are wrong , it’s equal opportunity doom for everyone . Eventually it leads to Bretton Woods 3-4-5 because I suspect it will take a few guys to get it right The West starved its material ledger to feed asset prices. China overbuilt its material ledger, putting credit into factories, apartments and infrastructure until returns collapsed. Now it's exporting the surplus as dumping, which is why everyone else needs tariffs. Too much capacity and too little capacity both end in a debt problem. Russia shows the third version: a war economy paying 15%-plus to fund itself. The 10y10y line is the warning. That's the market's guess at the 10-year rate a decade from now, and in September it ticked up to about 2.4% even as the spot 10-year slid. Investors expect cheap money now and either reflation or bigger risk later, probably from local government debt landing on the central government's books. It also explains the gold. A central bank in a deflating economy with yields at 1.7% gives up almost nothing by holding metal instead of bonds. China's 22 months of buying is partly insurance against Washington and partly an admission that its own paper pays little, and it's managing its own debt overhang by repressing its own savers. So the West is repricing its debt higher and China is repressing its debt lower. Neither is healthy. Each has broken the link between credit and real returns, just from opposite ends. M3 growth isn't the inflation rate. Money supply rises with credit, and in Australia most of that credit goes into existing housing. Which is my point: it inflates the financial ledger and land, not CPI. The problem is where the money goes, not how much of it there is.