Growth trend 101. Two of the most basic tools one needs to trade macro are growth estimates. They come in two general categories. Economic data and Market pricing data. Simplistically and broadly economic data is by definition and in practice lagging based on lagging reporting and rear view mirror. It is excellent in defining the trend of what has happened, it is modestly useful in spotting a shift in economic momentum but given its lagging nature is pretty bad at that and it is NOT useful for seeing the turn. Market pricing is very noisy however it clearly stays ON trend and like economic data is able to see the trend in the rear view mirror. However its noisiness creates falls turns in the economy. Furthermore market based anti growth moves tend to elicit asymmetric responses by policymakers (fed reacts to any dip, fiscal ONLY cares about dips). BUT when a trend breaks and breaks for good and policymakers are unwilling or unable to act the market based indicators always beat the economic indicators. Once again market based indicators of growth have flipped counter trend. See highly simplistic but pretty good basic bond vs stock chart. Is this noise? Will Bessent act next week and we end up right back on trend. More than likely. The point of this tweet is that standalone economic trend and momentum signals will ALWAYS miss the turn. You need forward looking ideas like " Not enough pie" I will pay you Tuesday for a Hamburger today" and "no v top in interest rates to see the future AND both economic and market based data to see trends, counter trends and new trends