More data than open-source AI is taking share from OpenAI and Anthropic. Open source has gone from 28% token share to 62% token share
@vercel over the last 2 months. Chart from
@rauchg
Super impressive given that the sum of OpenAI and Anthropic accelerated in July. So net token/AI infra demand accelerated even more than the acceleration we saw at the frontier. And suspect Grok growing even faster than open-source and we saw some of this in the
@tryramp data.
Open-source AI taking share is positive for AI infrastructure demand as it lowers margins at the model layer and an open-source token costs just as much compute to produce as a frontier token. Nothing about open-source AI inference is “free.”
Most likely end state IMO is that closed, frontier tokens are 60-90% of economic value but only 15 to 25% of tokens.