The fumbler cycle: 1) Mark out pullback area to buy 2) Buy on perps 3) Martingale 4) Can't handle drawdown on ltf 5) Close for L 6) Watch it bounce a little 7) Get pissed and long again 8) This time you swear you won't close 9) You hold underwater for 5 days 10) Random -4% candle scares you into closing 11) That was the bottom lol coin mega rips 12) You topblast 13) Catch 8% move 14) Take profits to cover the losses from before 15) Get sidelined for next 50% higher 16) Get pissed 17) Long laggard that your friend shilled you 18) Catch 27% move 19) Say you won't close this one early 20) Full roundtrip ensues

Keys to winning in a bull market: 1) Let spot do the heavy lifting for you 2) Concentrated high conviction bets > throwing darts 3) Do not fixate on perfect entries 4) Focus on strong coins, dispersion will return 5) The weekly trend is your best friend 7) Be open to new narratives, fading is midcurving 8) Respect your sleep and family. Sacrifice the rest 9) Bad entries on good coins are better than good entries on bad coins 10) Bid liquidation cascades and fud 11) Arbitrage speculative premium, then move on 12) Separate day trading account from the rest i.e. use subaccounts 13) Trade the chart, not your PnL goals 14) "Just another 2x" will destroy you 15) If you screenshot your PnL curve, sell some coins 16) Build the habit of withdrawing some money and putting it the bank every single time you realize a big win

The Psychological Stages of a Trend STAGE 1: Skepticism > Early meta shifts are met with extreme skepticism > The majority would rather bet on the more recent, strongly conditioned meta than adapt to the new information being presented. > A minority of early meta adopters set out to vocalize the shifting tides to the masses and are met with mixed reception. STAGE 2: The Momentum Crescendo > With time, the new meta (trend) will lead to a trickle-in effect of participation as they begin to acknowledge and get comfortable with the new information. > Many participants increase exposure to the trend as it accelerates and as their confidence in the trend grows. i.e small bets early and bigger bets later > A new feedback loop begins to form. This is when the conditioning effects of the new meta take place. > A trend will continue for a while even after the overwhelming majority of participants agree on the direction. > Contrarian traders begin to appear, i.e. "Everyone is bearish therefor I am bullish" note: fading confident sentiment works best in slowing momentum and poorly in strong momentum. STAGE 3: Divergence > Over time, conditioning effects will breed increasingly overconfident market participants willing to bet bigger and bigger on the current meta. > The momentum of the trend begins to wane and produce less intense results. > Late trends are met with a divergence between confidence and momentum. > Rising confidence; waning momentum > The decrescendo begins. Lessons: In risk markets it's wise to bet heaviest early in trend development when there is most skepticism. Maintain that position as other begin to flow in, then wane risk over time as the meta breeds a plethora of now overconfident betters. Fading sentiment works well when participants get seemingly get louder the more momentum slows. The divergence is actionable. The majority will be loudest and bet biggest after they become certain; a lethal game. "It's what you know that kills you"