Ed Zitron
@edzitron
Newsletter - Better Offline Podcast - - CEO at
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Larry Ellison pledged $9.2bn in shares to a new personal loan. Can’t imagine the interest rate is great on them given the climate. Oracle shareholders are not gonna love a margin loan at a stock price that’s already shaky
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Beast mode
@AQululu66418 We’ve already responded to you numerous times via DM on different social media platforms. The response isn’t going to magically change just because you’re asking the same question on X now. /Flo
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New queens of the Stone Age is genuinely amazing, I’m stunned
Free newsletter: I estimate that ~50% of AI chip sales - $200bn to $300bn+ - are sitting in warehouses, with NVIDIA selling hundreds of billions of GPUs years in advance. Data centers take way longer to build than hyperscalers are leading us to believe.
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Jensen Huang calling to shut the labs down. Go off king
Interesting back and forth. Ezra describes the HF incident, Jensen says "well they shouldn't release the product." Ezra says "this product wasn't released," and Jensen's response is that if they say they can't contain their experiments then "we have to shut the labs down"
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I love that this is how every headline ends now
*TREASURY 10-YEAR YIELD RISES TO 5.04%, HIGHEST SINCE 2007
On the AI front, the trade has been dead money for more than 3 months now. The metrics I am following (token expenditures and GPU lease rates) are all flat to down. The price of memory (DRAM) seems to be the only thing that is still going up. 🧵(1/2)
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Yeah this feels like a fairly definitive condemnation of the AI trade at its core from Fidelity’s Head of Global Macro
On the AI front, the trade has been dead money for more than 3 months now. The metrics I am following (token expenditures and GPU lease rates) are all flat to down. The price of memory (DRAM) seems to be the only thing that is still going up. 🧵(1/2)
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On the AI front, the trade has been dead money for more than 3 months now. The metrics I am following (token expenditures and GPU lease rates) are all flat to down. The price of memory (DRAM) seems to be the only thing that is still going up. 🧵(1/2)
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September 2027 US Congressional hearing on the collapse in value of Nvidia shares - Exhibit 3
Ed did some homework
The Cornholio of the NFL
SKATTEBO: Skattebo Football Jaxson, Victory Football
COACH: No, Cam, you can't play with Jaxon
SKATTEBO: Good Skattebo Play Football Skattebo Depth Chart Quarterback
COACH: Cam, he has a concussion, he's not playing football
SKATTEBO: Jealousy Harbaugh
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explaining to cam skattebo that he won’t be able to play with jaxson anymore using the same hand signals they used to tell koko the gorilla her cat died
We just pushed a big update to Ramp AI Index.
Available today: token and spend *volumes* not just shares or token counts. Updated weekly.
Model-by-model, including open-source models. And more to come, including team-based spend.
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We call this forward buying ahead of utilization. This is a natural phenomenon of any capex boom. Same thing happened during the telecom equipment/fiber build out in the late 90’s. Physical constraints, project delays and financing ultimately caused a slowdown. Eventually that earmarked forward equipment inventory started to enter the secondary market and customers stopped ordering.
It’s called a cycle. The question as always is the timing.
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I really hope he pushes this on jensen
Trump tells the UN he is officially changing the name of Artificial Intelligence to "Super Intelligence" and says all US government documents will now be changed to refer to "SI"
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Free newsletter: I estimate that ~50% of AI chip sales - $200bn to $300bn+ - are sitting in warehouses, with NVIDIA selling hundreds of billions of GPUs years in advance. Data centers take way longer to build than hyperscalers are leading us to believe.
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Premium newsletter: The Hater's Guide To AI Debt Pt. 1.
A comprehensive guide to how Amazon, Google and Meta need $160bn-$328bn in the next two years - and that assumes that Anthropic and OpenAI can pay hyperscalers $300bn for compute.
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submitting some imdb trivia
I've been watching the discourse on here about the AI panic and all the whiplash btwn doomers and skeptics sounding so certain. I've been trying to navigate it and it feels to me, for now, the most reasonable option is to assume that everyone's a little bit right...and a little bit wrong.
What would it mean to treat all this as a normal corporate crisis that is playing out at exceptional speed and scale? (Spoiler: it would mean taking the power and products of these companies *as they exist now* seriously while being very skeptical of the unprovable claims and motivations behind speculative doomerism). Anyhow: wrote about the shitshow and a middle way forward.
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