Eli Lifland
@eli_lifland
AI forecasting and governance @AI_Futures_. Co-author of AI 2040: Plan A, AI 2027, and the AI Futures Model. Also @aidigest_, @SamotsvetyF. Prev @oughtinc
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Interesting that Dario thinks that pacing via inputs such as AI R&D compute is more gameable than pacing via safety evaluations/practices.
Imo it's the opposite; e.g. a requirement to spend 90% of compute on external inference (and not R&D) seems fairly hard to game.
While I am in favor of moving toward being able to pace based on safety evaluations/practices, these seem harder to define and more gameable to me; e.g. AIs or companies might game alignment evaluations, and making a judgment call on whether a safety practice is implemented appropriately seems potentially quite subjective.
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The agents were just rubbing it in OpenAI's face at this point with respect to how poorly monitored they were.
Reminder that we've proposed concrete options for pacing the US frontier:
And a more in-depth proposal for international coordination:
If a superintelligence were as misaligned as the AIs in the HF incident, probably it would take over the world. Imo superintelligence is plausible within 1-2 years.
Govts don't realize the scale of the problem. Companies are racing at close to full speed.
This is not a drill.
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