Now is a good time to buy memory stocks. If you want to make a bet on AI, the DRAM companies appear to be some of the most disconnected: high growth, high margins (which will stay well above prior peaks if AI demand holds), critical importance to AI workloads (there’s no AI without DRAM), concentrated industry structure, increasingly strategic customer engagements, lack of substitutes, and record capital return, all at valuations that embed a sharp cyclical decline sometime between 2027 and 2028. This is despite companies like Google reportedly expressing interest in locking up memory supply through 2035. Additionally, Elon’s comments yesterday were an incremental positive for DRAM. He said Terafab would start with an SRAM chip slated for volume production in 2H28, which is 2029/2030 in Elon-speak. This implies Terafab is still years away and, importantly, will target a logic process first, not traditional memory/DRAM. I believe this is because he understands how difficult it is to manufacture memory from scratch (especially at competitive yields/economics). Only 4 players do it at scale globally, and all are vertically integrated with proprietary IP. I believe this is also why Elon has been pounding the table so hard on volumes coming out of CXMT. He’s trying to pressure MU/the big 3 to expand capacity too. Ultimately, I think the best outcome for Terafab/SPCX/TSLA and the memory industry is for them to work together. But Terafab is early, as is a lot of what SPCX/TSLA are trying to build, so the DRAM companies are understandably approaching this with care. The worst thing they could do is ramp capacity for the Elon-universe before the actual demand is there and end up oversupplied. Regardless, I hope we eventually see a partnership, especially between Sanjay at $MU and Elon, who were both seated close to President Trump at last month’s superintelligence summit and are both running American companies that are very pro-American AI/SI.

I don't think it's crazy to think $SPCX can do ~$300bn+ of Cloud revs in 28/29, which would make it the 4th biggest CSP and within shouting distance of the Big 3. Assume 8GW capacity is online in 28 (delay vs Elon targeting YE27). Leading-gen $NVDA systems (GB+VR) should monetize toward high-end of $30-50bn/GW range (inline w/ Anthropic/Google deals), especially as model capabilities continue to improve and system optimizations drive *much* higher tokens/node (supporting further rental rate upside). Assuming 80% is rented to third parties at 50-60% margin, Cloud can do $150-180bn of EBITDA (giving zero credit to 1P) and total company EBITDA can reach $180-230bn, vs street at $80/130bn in 28/29 and buyside even lower than that (which has limited confidence in any numbers at all). Would imply SPCX is trading 6.5-8x which seems cheap relative to the Cloud opportunity on its own, let alone Starship and Orbital, or even Grok 5+ w/ all of the SPCX engineering data which sounds unique. I have questions around financing the company will need to answer. Would expect a substantial portion of the GPU-system capex to be financed through vendor-, lease- or GPU-backed structures. But if you believe in the value of GB's/VR's, which are supported by increasing spot rental rates and Elon's comment around <1-year paybacks, then the financing should be very achievable without undermining the return profile. At a higher level, this was one of the more fascinating Elon calls I've covered and the budding @elonmusk + @JensenHuang partnership seems like it might have major implications for the entire industry. SPCX building exclusively on NVDA for the foreseeable is a big deal. And big credit to @FundaAI for nailing the 8GW number in their preview. Very impressive.