Gavin Baker says the compute market is now in contango per Silicon Data and his portfolio companies are shocked at how much more they have to pay for clusters in 2027
“You know, Silicon Data, which I do think is, my firm is an investor in them, but I do think they’re the most authoritative data source. Carmen Li, the founder, stood up at GTC and said that the compute market is now in contango. It’s not just that the spot market is tight. If you want a cluster a year from now, you have to pay a lot of money."
"And then this is maybe another discontinuity between public and private markets. But just the number of companies we have in our portfolio who are like, okay, we got a cluster of 4,000 Blackwells, and we got it in May or June ‘26, and we wanna bring on another cluster of 4,000 in September 2027, and they’re shocked by how much more they have to pay in the future."
"And it’s not like everybody is unaware of this. Everybody’s aware of the supply that’s coming on. But even with all of that supply coming on, it is hard for the companies in our portfolio to find compute even well into ‘27. So for, you know, all the commodity experts who are focused on backwardation and what that implied, I got news for you. We’re not in backwardation anymore.”