Full Port
@fullportshow
@gmoneynft and @hunterorrell live every tues & thurs at 10:30am et
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Full Port calls AI the number one or two issue of the coming election, with jobs and security leading the debate. @gmoneynft @hunterorrell
Microsoft is raising at least $25B in its first US bond sale since 2017. gmoney's read on today's show: the overhang on the stock is the fear of share issuance to fund AI, and management would rather borrow than dilute. @gmoneynft @hunterorrell
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Is the AI bubble popping, or is this a speed bump? A family dinner says adoption is moving faster than anyone thought. @gmoneynft and @hunterorrell.
The owner of the New York Stock Exchange is coming to Hyperliquid, taking a stake in with Stan Druckenmiller investing too. gmoney on today's show: it looks like HYPE's game to lose. @gmoneynft @hunterorrell
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Alphabet is down 13% after earnings. gmoney on today's show asked the question every Google investor has: how much is AI search cutting into the core business? @gmoneynft @hunterorrell
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Robinhood put up prizes for trading a hand-picked list of tokens. Who paid for it, and why these? @gmoneynft and @hunterorrell dig in.
Anthropic Files for IPO, Nvidia Buys Into Meta, and Guest Justin Taylo
PCE just came in at 3.6%, so CPI, PPI and PCE are all rising again. gmoney and Hunter called it on the Oct 15 show: PPI was running hotter than CPI, and inflation in PPI usually shows up everywhere next. @gmoneynft @hunterorrell
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BREAKING: US September PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation metric, rises to 3.6%.
Core PCE inflation also rose to 3.1%, up +0.3% month-over-month.
This officially confirms that CPI, PPI, and PCE inflation are all rising again.
A December rate hike is coming.
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Elon says the neoclouds get evaporated, and gmoney called this play shows ago. @hunterorrell and @gmoneynft on what it's doing to the debt markets.
Microsoft is offering buyouts to about 60,000 employees. Take the money, or stay and risk the layoff? @gmoneynft and @hunterorrell debate.
Meta's earnings are up and its headcount is down, and Wall Street loves it. @TheSmarmyBum joins @gmoneynft and @hunterorrell on what that means for new grads.
33 major US companies now oppose tokenized versions of their stock on OKX and ICE's exchange. Justin Taylor walked gmoney and Hunter through why tokenizing a stock like Tesla has to go through a trust. @gmoneynft @hunterorrell @TheSmarmyBum
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JUST IN: 🇺🇸 33 major US companies now oppose having their stocks tokenized on OKX and ICE's planned exchange:
• IBM
• Dell
• Intel
• IonQ
• AMD
• Intuit
• Oracle
• Adobe
• Verizon
• Sandisk
• Moderna
• Alphabet
• AppLovin
• Microsoft
• JPMorgan
• Broadcom
• Caterpillar
• Coca-Cola
• Qualcomm
• Rocket Lab
• CoreWeave
• Wells Fargo
• McDonald's
• Arm Holdings
• Cisco Systems
• Applied Digital
• Western Digital
• Goldman Sachs
• Applied Materials
• Cerebras Systems
• Marvell Technology
• UnitedHealth Group
• Applied Optoelectronics
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Goldman sees just one more Fed hike and room for a stock rally. gmoney and Hunter see it differently: the Fed decides today, Alphabet and Microsoft report right after, and the next big short may be building. @gmoneynft @hunterorrell
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GOLDMAN SACHS SEES LIMITED FED HIKES, POTENTIAL STOCK MARKET RALLY
Goldman Sachs expects just one additional Fed rate hike, compared with three currently priced by markets, suggesting the current tightening cycle could be among the smallest since 1983.
Strategist Vickie Chang highlighted historically strong equity performance following limited tightening cycles: the S&P 500 gained 34% in the year after the 1997 hike and 9% following the 2015 hike.
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The Fed decides Wednesday, Alphabet and Microsoft report right after, and the smartest money is calling for a pullback. @gmoneynft and @hunterorrell on the week ahead.
Meta said it wouldn't issue stock until 2027. This week it sold $25B at $625, and Nvidia took $3B of it. @gmoneynft and @hunterorrell on what the cash means.
Anthropic's S-1 is out, and the read is "not as bad as feared." But token usage is up while profit per token is going down. @gmoneynft and @hunterorrell on the filing.
Anthropic Files for IPO, Nvidia Buys Into Meta, and Guest Justin Taylo
Up next on Full Port: Justin Taylor (@TheSmarmyBum), founder of Secret Menu, a brand and creator consultancy, and formerly at WWE, Twitter, Nike and Activision. He joins gmoney and Hunter live today at 10:30 AM ET. @gmoneynft @hunterorrell
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Elon says debt markets have shut off for anyone without revenue outside AI data centers, and SpaceX just closed $40B for GPUs. gmoney floated this exact play on the Oct 15 show: SpaceX is public and can raise, and if the private labs can't get financing, Elon moves up the board. @gmoneynft @hunterorrell
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Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
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Apollo says AI has delivered zero payoff outside big tech. That's the question that kept gmoney from going heavy long Meta into earnings on Thursday's show: where's the ROI on all this capex? @gmoneynft @hunterorrell
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APOLLO: AI HAS DELIVERED “ZERO PAYOFF” OUTSIDE BIG TECH
Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok warns that massive AI spending has yet to deliver measurable productivity gains across corporate America.
Revenue per worker and profit margins are rising for the Magnificent Seven but remain flat for the S&P 493.
Meanwhile, Gartner estimates $3.5 trillion in AI infrastructure spending could face impairment risk by 2030.
The key takeaway: AI investment is booming, but returns outside Big Tech remain elusive.
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