The Fundamentalist
@funmenati
$NBIS, $IREN, $NVDA, $OSCR, $HIMS, $BMNR Bull
European investor in love with fundamentals
388 Following 5.3K Followers
$SIVE
People were arguing with me about 3 months ago about how this stock is a perfect investment and how I can call myself a long-term investor
Management has no idea what they are doing; they keep talking about massive pipeline growth
WHO CARES?
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Mark September 7th in your calendars!
Expect one of the craziest days in the stock market.
$IREN
I am confused about the "New Multi-Year Contract with Leading Frontier AI Lab" part, but otherwise this is what I expected. The next two quarters are when everything decides itself.
However, it might be slightly better than what the majority of people expected.
Waiting for the presentation and call
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$IREN
Really close to selling out of my position
$IREN
The call is terrible, even worse than other quaters
Dan is completely off, he seems to read the presentation for the first time the same way we do
$IREN
Why are we misleading again?
$4B in ARR is forecasted for CY26 not FY27
So $IREN, with slightly over $6B of capital employed at 6/30/26 is going to spend $25-30B in FY 2027…?! Which means they will average almost $20B in capital employed in FY 2027. On a forecast of $4B in ARR. The math still doesn’t work here.
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$IREN
The worst thing is that the numbers are not that bad because it was expected as H1 was delivered during Q3 2026.
The pricing is similar to what $NBIS showed, but the lack of transparency from the management is annoying.
Also the $25B-$30B in CapEx is completely crazy. There needs to be a huge amount of deals signed with great prepayments for this to make sense.
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$IREN
People don’t get it
A lot of people that are not familiar with the "neocloud" space that much are complaining about $IREN not announcing a big deal since September last year.
This was never the issue, these big hyperscaler/frontier AI lab deals are much worse than signing several smaller enterprise customers. The biggest customers usually want to sign long-term deals (~5yrs) with fixed revenue per MW, which we now know to be a terrible allocation of your capacity as demand keeps growing faster than supply.
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$IREN
LOL
The CapEx FUD is crazy on X right now…
The worst case scenario, dilution risk is $8B (unlikely), not $25B - $30B
$IREN
Exactly $22B is financed by these two instruments, which leaves you with $3B - $8B cash that needs to be raised somehow
There are so many misleading posts on both ends right now
It is actually 73-88%
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The more I read on X about $IREN the more I realize how many people take no time to digest and understand what is being told. Yes, there will be 30B CAPEX. *95-100%* of that is paid for via customer prepayment and financing. ZERO dilution needed. Buy while others are ignorant.
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We called the crypto bottom last month and as of today I’ve taken all short‑term positions off.
I’m still extremely bullish for the next 18 months, but I think we’re running into short‑term resistance.
In this video we will talk about bitcoin:native ethereum:native $MSTR $COIN $CRCL
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$CRWD is now 2 for 2 on the Smart Money Zone this bull cycle
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$IREN
Exactly $22B is financed by these two instruments, which leaves you with $3B - $8B cash that needs to be raised somehow
There are so many misleading posts on both ends right now
It is actually 73-88%
Show more
The more I read on X about $IREN the more I realize how many people take no time to digest and understand what is being told. Yes, there will be 30B CAPEX. *95-100%* of that is paid for via customer prepayment and financing. ZERO dilution needed. Buy while others are ignorant.
Show more
$IREN
LOL
The CapEx FUD is crazy on X right now…
The worst case scenario, dilution risk is $8B (unlikely), not $25B - $30B
$IREN
People don’t get it
A lot of people that are not familiar with the "neocloud" space that much are complaining about $IREN not announcing a big deal since September last year.
This was never the issue, these big hyperscaler/frontier AI lab deals are much worse than signing several smaller enterprise customers. The biggest customers usually want to sign long-term deals (~5yrs) with fixed revenue per MW, which we now know to be a terrible allocation of your capacity as demand keeps growing faster than supply.
Show more
$IREN
The worst thing is that the numbers are not that bad because it was expected as H1 was delivered during Q3 2026.
The pricing is similar to what $NBIS showed, but the lack of transparency from the management is annoying.
Also the $25B-$30B in CapEx is completely crazy. There needs to be a huge amount of deals signed with great prepayments for this to make sense.
Show more
$IREN
Why are we misleading again?
$4B in ARR is forecasted for CY26 not FY27
So $IREN, with slightly over $6B of capital employed at 6/30/26 is going to spend $25-30B in FY 2027…?! Which means they will average almost $20B in capital employed in FY 2027. On a forecast of $4B in ARR. The math still doesn’t work here.
Show more
