SPCX is aggressively pushing reverse engineering to get around bottlenecks... Racks, chillers, etc... So they're going to vertically integrate everything they possibly can. How do they get around patents and IP with this? Don't they get sued?

Anthropic's Sholto Douglas says AI capex could rise from $1 trillion this year to $4 trillion in 2028 and begin doubling humanity’s GDP by the early 2030s “Over the course of the last four or five years, we’ve been 2x-ing or 3x-ing the amount of compute capacity devoted to AI every year." "And so I think that’s roughly, together, the hyperscalers are spending about a trillion dollars this year on capex related to AI. A very interesting question will be, will that trend line hold, and so will it go to $2 trillion next year and then $4 trillion in 2028?" "And if that trend line broadly holds, and you can expand that to encompass the broader robotics industry, then that means that in the early 2030s, you start to get to the point where you’re actually effectively doubling the GDP of humanity, which, again, is a little bit of a ridiculous concept, but requires a lot of things to go right.”

So it only took 8 weeks for Musk to go from "at least one [Starship] flight a day, possibly more" by August 2027 to now suggesting 1-2 launches per week next year. As I said at the time, Musk's statements on the Q2 earnings call just weren't believable

JPMorgan sees $IREN becoming a 2,065 MW business generating ~$24B of revenue with 65% EBITDA margins by 2030. Whats really interesting is the pricing assumption because JPMorgan only models ~$13M per MW by FY30 while IREN is already around ~$11M today and management is discussing contracts closer to ~$25M. So if we use the ~$25M on same 2,065 MW base then that would imply $50B+ of revenue before any additional capacity upside.

Bernstein models $IREN scaling to ~5.8 GW longer term with cloud revenue reaching ~$17B and adjusted EBITDA ~$13B by 2030. Interesting that they assume Childress stays flat at 750 MW so almost all of that upside comes from proving Sweetwater design can be repeated across Oklahoma, Australia and Europe. Thats where the opportunity gets really large if IREN can execute with three-year contract pricing already up 125% even as the note also models ~$65B of incremental CapEx before the full revenue ramp.

Anthropic and OpenAI are now chasing 20 to 30 MW compute deals alongside gigawatt projects as “speed to usable capacity” becomes increasingly important. That puts already energized sites in a way stronger position as labs look to take whatever capacity can come online fastest.

Each Starship launch could generate $1 billion in revenue. Elon is aiming for 10,000 flights per year, or $10 trillion in Starship revenues, by 2030. If SpaceX achieves this goal, its $1.75 trillion IPO will be considered, in hindsight, a deep value opportunity!

$IREN CEO Dan Roberts said the bear case that AI data centers get rebuilt in 10 years does NOT apply to Iren. He said that each data center is becoming the reference design for the next. Each project is inherited in the last one’s lessons instead of starting from zero.