Gary Black(@garyblack00):I’ve argued for months there is some fundamental reason TSLA’s planned unsupervised autonomy rollout has slowed from addressing half the U.S. population by end of 2025, to doubling fleet size every month (articulated after 1Q), to its current planned growth rate of +10%/week, as articulated by @aelluswamy on the 2Q earnings call. While we all understand the need for $TSLA to go slow given the damage even one headline would cause if a Tesla operated by FSD hit someone, $TSLA stock continues to underperform because investors are losing faith that FSD will ever be able to scale from its current roster of 90-100 unsupervised autonomous vehicles without safety monitors. Meanwhile, $GOOG’s Waymo continues to operate 4,000 unsupervised autonomous vehicles without safety monitors and complete 500K unsupervised autonomous rides per week.

2026.08.11 19:07

I’ve argued for months there is some fundamental reason TSLA’s planned unsupervised autonomy rollout has slowed from addressing half the U.S. population by end of 2025, to doubling fleet size every month (articulated after 1Q), to its current planned growth rate of +10%/week, as articulated by @aelluswamy on the 2Q earnings call. While we all understand the need for $TSLA to go slow given the damage even one headline would cause if a Tesla operated by FSD hit someone, $TSLA stock continues to underperform because investors are losing faith that FSD will ever be able to scale from its current roster of 90-100 unsupervised autonomous vehicles without safety monitors. Meanwhile, $GOOG’s Waymo continues to operate 4,000 unsupervised autonomous vehicles without safety monitors and complete 500K unsupervised autonomous rides per week.

Matt Smith@nerdalert

2026.08.09 23:37

I won’t claim to know what the key bottleneck is here, frankly because management’s messaging around this point has been quite opaque. A few years ago, Elon passionately made the point that going slow with FSD once it was significantly safer than a human was immoral. Now it is meaningfully safer than a human, but the script has flipped and we need to go slow anyways because any safety incident whatsoever would be bad. Last quarter it was doubling fleet size every month, with new cities like Vegas launching within two months. Four months later and miles driven per month actually decreased, and the proposed rate of new miles shrunk to 10%/month. I know this is a hard problem but their own internal goals and messaging are incoherent, and there is certainly not a sense of urgency that we’re picking up from Elon’s words or tone.

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