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Matt Smith
@nerdalert
Equity Analysis at Rebellionaire. Finance and energy nerd. Giga-dad of 7 young kids. Catholic. Tweets are not financial advice!
655 Following    59.9K Followers
Welp, that didn’t take long…
This is how I want to go out.
Told @nerdalert on @Rebellionaire that the US News cycle is not great at capturing the *actual* abundance moments for steel in the ground, ⚡ in your house, or #EnergyforAI#. In the past 24 hours, TWO mega impact studies on AI, Grids, and Data Center Demand have come out. BOTH @Google funded. Have you seen anything in the "news"? This is a riot, and a travesty. Anyway y'all, that's why I tweet.
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My car is about to get smarter.
Watch what they do… Pacing frontier training models does not mean not having enough compute to serve the inference needs of your customers
Our @rebellionaire Investment Management team was on-the-ground in NYC this week for the Backblaze Investor Day. Here are our unfiltered thoughts after the event.
The analyst team at Rebellionaire attended Backblaze ($BLZE) Investor Day in New York City. What were some of the key takeaways for investors? 1) NVIDIA updated their reference architecture to call for an object storage data layer, which is the exact terminology Backblaze has been using for many years to describe their own business. 2) CoreWeave signed a $300M+ deal with Backblaze, proving their storage is compatible with NVIDIA's stack 3) NeoClouds don't want AWS lock-in or egress fees. They need hyperscaler-agnostic storage as data grows exponentially, which Backblaze can provide. 4) Backblaze is only working with 5 of ~200 NeoClouds. The TAM is barely touched. 5) CoreWeave chose to buy storage from Backblaze rather than build. That's because Backblaze has 20 years of operational expertise that can't be replicated overnight. @nerdalert @HenryInvests @isaacyops
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I saw two cybercabs again today. Given how frequently I'm seeing them these days despite only driving ~30 miles per day, it seems likely to me that there must be at least a couple dozen of them around here, likely a lot more than that in the broader Metro Detroit area.
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It took me two years, four ventures, two mega grid program creation journeys, to finally sit down with @nerdalert. We covered somehow, six years of my working originating gigs of new steel for power and human resilience. Loved doing this, Matt is an incredibly knowledgeable host who is doing fantastic high-signal evangelism in a noisy space.
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I talked about this company on the @nerdalert latest pod for @Rebellionaire. What they're doing, is keep our ice cream cold, hospital machines humming, buildings resilient. Human-centric Infra category creation & refinement is a big part of everything I back. Talk to @powertownusa if you're new or old in this business.
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“Dad! Dad! I got 46th place!!!” -Overheard at a cross country meet tonight.
I had the pleasure to speak with @arushiSF, Tesla's former energy policy lead, and the architect of a new rule which will allow for better utilization of the grid and faster time to power for data center (and other!) customers in Texas. This was one of my favorite conversations in the last few years!
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'Rewriting AI Power Policy with Arushi Sharma Frank' AI's biggest bottleneck is electricity. With a massive five-year wait to plug new infrastructure into the Texas ERCOT power grid, data centers face a major roadblock. In this video, @nerdalert sits down with energy policy expert @ArushiSF to discuss the groundbreaking new rule she pioneered: Provisional Controllable Load Resource (PCLR), which is a tech-neutral framework that allows AI data centers to bypass interconnect gridlock, privatize delivery risk, and secure fast, flexible power. Beyond AI power policy, Arushi shares insights from her time as Elon Musk’s policy lead for Tesla Energy.
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Big news for me! I have been invited to the Tesla Semi Rollout Event on September 24th in Sparks Nevada at the new Semi Factory! This event is mainly for potenial Logistics / Fleet customers and employees. So not sure how many creators will actually be there. We get to tour the Factory, hang out with the team, and ride in the Semi! Believe it or not, this will be my first time to the Semi in person. Big shoutout to Jason, Dan, and Tesla! Thank you!
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The one thing I never hear from the $UBER bulls is how they will compete given Tesla’s unit economics advantage. Cybercab will be lower cost to manufacture, lower cost to operate, and also offers a better customer experience with the interior of the cab. This will directly translate to the lowest cost to operate, and therefore to the lowest customer price per mile. So while I acknowledge the value of Uber’s network and accomplishments to date, I can’t see them competing profitably under any reasonable set of scenarios. And the moat of their network strikes me as extremely fragile. It wasn’t long ago that most Uber drivers I spoke with also drove for Lyft, and they would take rides from whichever platform gave them the best earnings profile, often switching multiple times throughout a single day. As a consumer I did the same, until somewhat recently as Uber pulled away. If I’m a rider needing to choose between Uber and a Tesla Robotaxi, it’s true that I’m more familiar with the Uber and at least initially theres likely to be some stasis that prevents an immediate switch. But at sone point, all I will have to do is download the Robotaxi app and see that my rides are meaningfully cheaper with this option. So I’ll give it a whirl, and then I’ll realize that on top of being cheaper, it’s also more comfortable, more private, and an overall superior customer experience. Uber does have its advantages in this fight, but they are not durable advantages.
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The $UBER vs $TSLA debate happening right now across the board is fascinating in many respects. I’ve spent all day reading both sides. I even went to ChatGPT and had a conversation with Astra because of how fascinating this debate is to me. By the way, Astra is legit. Releasing that before Anthropic’s IPO was a chess move. The frontier lab wars are only getting more intense. I am long both in small quantities. A bit of Tesla I bought a year ago at $350 and haven’t added since and a small amount of Uber I added 2 weeks ago at $75 after taking a look at the numbers. Not short any of the names but also not meaningfully long any of them at this moment either. My conclusion so far is both sides are being ridiculously extreme in their conclusion. The extreme $UBER bulls are not seriously acknowledging the direct existisitential threat to its moat via CyberCab’s pure product experience and eventual scale. The extreme $TSLA bulls are not giving any merit to the 200M+ monthly users they have, how hard is it to scale a network, how self driving might be commoditized and Uber could simply become the largest marketplace for multiple vendors, and how much time unsupervised true autonomy will take to reach any meaningful level of Uber’s 42M daily rides. Honestly, I think both will do well. I don’t think it has to be as black or white as both sides are making it. However, it is an incredible thought experiment. Uber disrupted transportation forever with technology, and now Tesla is disrupting transportation forever with autonomy. I think Uber is undervalued. I think Tesla has the most exciting potential out of all the Mag 7 over the next decade. I just think both sides are writing off the other for no reason. The funniest outcome would be an eventual partnership even though I know it’s not that likely, but I do think this is going to not be one or the other.
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I don’t think you understand how epic it is to ratio someone in their OWN subscriber only replies. RIP Jason
I WILL SEND THE NAVY SEALS INTO KEY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS TO UTTERLY DESTROY THESE NASTY BOND YIELDS!! THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER.
BREAKING: President Trump issues a strong statement about rate cuts. He says he will cease trading with all countries that have a trade deficit if rates are not lowered.
Thanks for the tremendous insights @farzyness
Once in a while we hear $TSLAQ saying the quiet part out loud.
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Saw a Cybercab outside Ann Arbor yesterday. I'm shocked at how common they are becoming even here where they aren't officially launched yet. Very excited for today's event!