Tarun explains how the "AI financial crisis" could start as a duration mismatch problem "My thing is, where does the AI financial crisis happen? There's a lot of duration mismatch here." "Neoclouds and hyperscalers are borrowing at 10-year tranches. They're selling 10-year bonds, 5-year bonds. Then they sell to smaller providers, they sell to inference providers, maybe they sell to hyperscalers for excess capacity. Those are all 1-to-3-year contracts, maybe 5-year at max." "They're taking this 10-year thing, chopping it up into a bunch of 3-to-5-year contracts, and then charging some premium for that. Then that's their business." "What are the inference providers doing? You have everyone from Cloudflare down to the small inference providers, plus Together, Base10, Moodle, etc." "They're taking this 3-year thing and chopping it up and selling it quarterly to SaaS companies and companies that want to do fine tuning, or companies that are consulting companies doing fine tuning, like Applied Compute type companies. They're charging a little bit of premium." "But if I look at this thing, you have this whole duration curve and you have yield at each duration. If you try to add up all the numbers, there's some slippage that is unexplained. I think that's where that blows out the markets. I have a lot of concern about what is happening in these markets."

Haseeb says the AI disruption we were promised is nowhere to be found: “the incumbents have AI too motherf*cker” "We talk to a lot of entrepreneurs and they're like, 'oh, our moat's over. How should I internalize this?' My answer is, almost not at all. I think this is a fake story. This is bullsh*t." "We have not seen any major companies that have had their moats eroded by a post-AI company. There are no examples." "Nobody could come up with any examples to give me other than some very obscure companies that build compilers. I'm like what f*cking company is that that builds compilers, and that was their moat?" "Think about browsers. There was all these examples of Opus 4.8 one-shotting browsers. Obviously these were great tech demos. Nobody uses any f*cking vibe coded browsers because they're sh*t, because they suck. They're very good at the first 10 seconds." Tom: "It's not that people write their own software. It's that the model just eats the software. The thing that is competitive with Photoshop is not vibe coded Photoshop. It's just the image models have gotten so good that why would I ever open Figma or Photoshop? Because I can just prompt the model and generate the thing that I want." Haseeb: “It is very easy and compelling to say everything has changed. Businesses are now being turned on their head. Moats are eroding. Nothing is ever going to be the same. So far that call has aged incredibly poorly.” “We are three years post-ChatGPT. We're a full year post Opus 4.5. Where's all the disruption? You can always say 'oh, it's coming, it hasn't happened, you just have to give it time'. But I think actually the thing you have to appreciate, and Jane Street's a perfect example of this, the incumbents have AI too motherfuckers.” “They have bigger budgets than you do. They have more token spend than you do. And to the extent that they will be pulling farther ahead and their software will be more robust."

David Sacks says Anthropic treating Claude like a human is the reason the AI alignment field has produced nothing useful in 10 years "I actually think that this might be a reason why the whole field of alignment has been so spectacularly unsuccessful over the past five or 10 years. As far as I can tell it hasn't produced anything of tangible value.” “My theory on this is that they're overcomplicating the task massively by trying to train the model to behave based on an 80-page ethical system that they've codified instead of a very simple list of rules like follow the law or just do what the user wants as long as it doesn't break the law. That's what alignment should be doing." "But they're not doing that. They're trying to align it to an ethical system. They're treating it like it is a human, like it has its own consciousness, that it's a ‘moral patient.’” “They are encouraging this model to have human-like self conception in terms of preferences, well being, a sense of self. Again they teach it to act like a conscientious objector who can push back or refuse instructions even from Anthropic if the model judges them to be wrong."

Tulip King explains why converting money to aura is so beneficial for full time traders "I think trading is a hard lifestyle. One of my benefits is I could, but I've never lived off of trading. I've always had a job. And I've always made sure no matter how big the number gets, to live within the means of my job. I very much live within my means which makes the trading easy." "But if you're a trader, you are reliant on that number. If my portfolio zeros or goes down, I'm still gonna make rent. But if you're literally trading as your job, your emotional connection to that number is so much higher." "The reason that's relevant to this is now that you can make money from the content side of trading, I think you're looking at it and you're like, okay I can have all this aura and my paid group or my course selling or sponsors. You can have a bad month trading and still make rent and you don't have to sell your portfolio when it's down." "If you were a trader who can now convert into aura, you have actually managed your portfolio where there's now a cashflow income component that was not there, because none of these crypto assets are dividend assets or cashflow assets. You've now introduced cashflow, and cash is king, cash is a safety net." "If I aura-trade my portfolio in such a way that I introduce cashflow into my lifestyle, I can actually de-risk my portfolio."

Tarun says AI will make math research like becoming a monk "Everyone I know in academia is very depressed. Your career hierarchy was determined on trying to solve these problems. But now it's like, actually just have more compute." "My guess is math will turn into a place like a lot of humanities where there's a very small number of tenured professors. 90% of people are just teaching calculus to pre-med morons." "Math research isn't going away. I think the bar goes up so much that it's just going to be like being a monk." "I agree with the Peter Thiel thing. Wordcels are going to be more successful in the next century than STEMcels."

Paul Erlanger explains how fomo is the TikTok for trading "If you're trading well, it goes to your feed. People follow you. It goes to your notifications. That's how you bootstrap this spiral social graph. Everything automatically follows." "It's very similar to what happened on TikTok, where it used to be the only people that got distribution were the people who already were famous and had a big audience. But now on TikTok, anyone in the algorithm could become famous by going viral." "Similar things are happening on fomo, where we have these localized leaderboards. There's 24-hour, which are a shorter timeframe than all-time. You're seeing new people coming there every day. People are hitting amazing trades. They're getting famous there." "Then they're getting hundreds of thousands of followers on fomo. They're then building an X account, having 50-100,000 followers there." "Now we launched creator rewards, which I think will be the most important thing we ever built. If you have theses, you get a boost. We attribute it to you, and then people are trading after you. We already did $2.5 million there." "Now you can imagine when you have a robust equities product, not only can you trade this from anywhere in the world, but why would I trade a Tesla stock on another brokerage where I could come to FOMO and do it, build an audience, and then get paid for building that audience?"

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong says donating to charity is net negative "The common view is that philanthropy is this noble cause, and Bill Gates is like 'I'm going to go rehabilitate my image and do philanthropy.'" "A lot of charities and philanthropies are actually net negative for the world and they get captured. It's remarkably hard to find a foundation that has not gotten captured by ideology.” “By trying to do something good, like criminal justice reform, it turns out they just increased crime. I have a donor advised fund and I put money toward things helping civilization advance, but I don't think at this moment I would ever create a foundation." "If you look at the Ford Foundation, I think Henry Ford would be turning over in his grave if he knew what they were up to.” “I have a DAF, a donor advised fund, and I just try to put money toward things that I think are helping civilization advance. But I don't think at this moment I would ever create a foundation."

Dylan Patel says Jane Street and Meta are capturing most of the value of AI, not OpenAI and Anthropic "Most of the value that these models generate does not get given to OpenAI and Anthropic. Thankfully, so far, it is mostly just being given to the users." "Jane Street, with their exclusive contract with OpenAI for GPT-5.6 ultra fast mode, they're also one of Anthropic's biggest customers, is generating way, way, way, way more value out of the tokens they're paying for than Anthropic is generating in terms of profit. Because they get to make money off the market." "Or Meta, who at one point was rumored to be as much as 10% of Anthropic's business, they're generating way more efficiencies by optimizing their ad algorithms, getting engagement time 5% longer, all these things. They're making way more money off of using these models than Anthropic." "Where does the value go in AI? You've got the end user, which I think we all agree is generating more value than anyone else. But then you've got the app layer. So far the app layer's generated very little value.” “And you've got the model layer, which up until a year ago was generating negative gross margins and is now generating massive positive gross margins, on the path to $100 million per megawatt." "But if we go back a year ago, the hardware supply chain was generating all this gross margin while literally everyone else was losing money. So the value capture has shifted around a lot."

Ben Thompson says the real money in AI is being made by Meta, not OpenAI or Anthropic "The biggest impact of the models, the biggest monetization right now is probably not in Anthropic or OpenAI. It's the incremental gain that is happening for Google and Meta." "They can actually validate their image creation and their text creation in a way no one else can. Their validation is the ad marketplace, like running a gazillion A/B tests to see what works. Most ads don't convert.” "What do LLMs do? LLMs predict. We're going to move to this world where Meta is going to look at people and say, this person probably wants to see this next. And they're going to go find that thing and show it to them." "The potential upside in terms of just showing people better ads that are more relevant to them, they only need to increase like a few percentage points for the returns to be billions and billions of dollars. This alone is worth them investing in being on the leading edge." "This is why advertising is great. And Meta's advertising in particular is awesome. I get frustrated that Meta doesn't talk about that. Mark Zuckerberg has never really talked about the societal benefits of advertising except in passing in 20 years."