what the numbers are telling us for
@NetNetCap this week
1. the dilution figure
supply went from 67.8k to 80k robinhood:0xca9c78dd337a67f6e0077f65f5e9218719d30edf this week, +18.1%, still gated by the premium above NAV, capped at 0.45% per epoch.
> 90.2% of supply is staked, basically flat versus last week's 89.3%
> 7d dilution around -6.5% staked, -15.8% unstaked
dilution keeps happening, and at a similar clip to last week.
2. the offset
supply grew 18.1%. assets grew almost twice as fast.
> true rfv: $11.98m to $15.97m, +33.3%
> treasury alone: $8.64m to $11.93m, +38.1%
> nav per robinhood:0xca9c78dd337a67f6e0077f65f5e9218719d30edf including the rwa sleeve: $176.82 to $199.52, +12.8%
dilution up 18%, backing per token up 13%, treasury up 38%. still the whole game.
3. where the reserve actually came from
cumulative inflows since inception: $7.29m to $9.25m, +26.9% this week.
> primary bonds: $5.45m to $7.09m, +30.1%
> trading tax: $1.27m to $1.51m, +18.9%
> premium sales: $233.9k to $280.6k, +20.0%
> other: $168k to $196.1k, +16.8%
> genesis bonds flat at $35k, expected, one time launch pool
bonding is still the biggest single driver of reserve growth by a wide margin.
4. revenue is still growing ahead of the games
total revenue estimate: $1.32m to $1.56m, +18.2%.
> tax revenue made up $1.51m of that
> game fees made up $54k, now just 3.46% of total revenue, down again from 3.9% last week
> trailing 30d tax revenue: $1.19m to $1.39m, +16.8%
game fee share keeps shrinking as a percentage even as the dollar amount ticks up, tax is just growing faster.
5. what backs it, and the part that matters most
rwa sleeve: $3.34m to $4.04m, +21.1%. but the shape of it changed, not just the size.
> $SPCX, $NVDA, $AAPL and $GOOGL are now mostly posted as collateral into netnet credit ($743k/$625k/$392k/$236k)
> four uniswap v3 positions across those same stonks are worth $2.16m at marks
> turbo's desk pots are worth $368.6k
> the sleeve borrowed $712.3k against that collateral, about 35.7% ltv against a 62.5% cap
price to nav compressed again. it was ~5.5x last week, now around 2.53x. implied price fell about 48% while nav per token kept climbing. third straight week of compression.
6. the protocol looks stronger than it did a week ago, again
> backing grew almost twice as fast as supply
nav per token up 12.8%
> price to nav compressed from 5.5x to roughly 2.53x
> treasury up 38.1%, cumulative inflows up 26.9% to $9.25m
> rwa sleeve up 21.1%, now actively working across credit, lp and turbo instead of just sitting there
> revenue up 18.2% to $1.56m, still tax led, game share keeps shrinking as a percentage, but that will change once the DK style game drops..
backing keeps compounding while price keeps getting cheaper relative to it, and that gap doesn't stay open forever.
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