steve hsu(@hsu_steve):AI Boom or Bust? – Manifold #122 Are we in an AI bubble? Analysis of AI CapEx, revenues, OAI+ANT burn rates. AI revenue has to reach $ TRILLIONS per annum within the next few years (an increase of > 10x; compare total global software revenue of $1.5T today), or else the current CapEx spend will turn out to be a huge misallocation. Separately, even if total AI revenue reaches these levels, OAI and ANT could still be overvalued due to revenue/margin compression from competition with other US or Chinese labs. Chapters: (00:00) - Conference Takeaways (03:21) - AI Capability Leap (07:36) - Both Things True (08:46) - CapEx Debt Risks (10:31) - Trillion Revenue Hurdle (18:32) - Spend Plateau Signals (31:45)

2026.10.08 09:21

AI Boom or Bust? – Manifold #122# Are we in an AI bubble? Analysis of AI CapEx, revenues, OAI+ANT burn rates. AI revenue has to reach $ TRILLIONS per annum within the next few years (an increase of > 10x; compare total global software revenue of $1.5T today), or else the current CapEx spend will turn out to be a huge misallocation. Separately, even if total AI revenue reaches these levels, OAI and ANT could still be overvalued due to revenue/margin compression from competition with other US or Chinese labs. Chapters: (00:00) - Conference Takeaways (03:21) - AI Capability Leap (07:36) - Both Things True (08:46) - CapEx Debt Risks (10:31) - Trillion Revenue Hurdle (18:32) - Spend Plateau Signals (31:45) - IPO and Bubble Fallout