⚠️The world’s copper refiner is cutting back. 🇨🇳China refines about 48% of the world’s copper, 14m tonnes in 2025. Now its smelters plan deeper output cuts. The squeeze comes from both sides. Concentrate is so tight that spot treatment charges turned negative this year, so smelters are now paying miners to process their ore. The byproducts that used to cover the loss are weakening, with sulfuric acid down 11% in September alone. China’s top smelters had already pledged to cut 2026 output by more than 10%. Seven planned 30–60 days of maintenance for October and November. Mines were already the bottleneck. Now refining is too. If China refines less, the world gets less copper wire.

🇦🇪 Freight shuts US crude out of Asia and Murban fills the gap A supertanker from the US Gulf to Asia now costs $76–82M, $40 a barrel. Traders say the arbitrage is closed. Asian refiners are buying closer to home instead: 🇦🇪 Murban’s premium over Dubai jumped above $11/bbl, yet it still lands $2 cheaper than WTI. 🇦🇷 Argentina’s Medanito is on the shortlist too. 🇺🇸 US producers carry the cost. Sellers are expected to cut offers to keep barrels moving. Brent’s premium over WTI stretched to $14–15 this week, from $9 in late September. Brent prices seaborne crude, so freight costs get built into it. WTI is priced inland at Cushing. ⚠️ Some Asian buyers still pay up for supply security, and Japan’s Cosmo Oil chartered a ship at $81M. If freight eases, the arbitrage reopens quickly.

🇸🇦Saudi Arabia's oil has exactly 2 ways out right now both are compromised... East via Hormuz: Ras Tanura → strait → ship-to-ship transfer → Malacca → Asia. 3,370nm 10 days. Fast, but running through the exact chokepoint that's been disrupted since February. West via Red Sea: Yanbu → partial pipeline discharge → Sidi Kerir → around the Cape of Good Hope → Asia. 29+ days. Nearly triple the distance because Bab al-Mandeb is also blocked, forcing a full Africa detour instead of the Suez shortcut. Both of Saudi's coastal export options are compromised at once that's the real story here, not just Hormuz. image source:AlJaazera

🇷🇺The Kapotnya refinery in Moscow is on fire after Ukraine's largest drone attack of the war. 1,600+ drones downed since Saturday, 450 aimed at Moscow. Multiple fires reported at the site a nearby warehouse complex in Sofyino was also struck. Kapotnya processes 11m tonnes of oil a year and supplies a major share of Moscow's fuel market. It's the same playbook Ukraine has run all year drain Russia's fuel supply, one refinery at a time. Timing is interesting…final day of Russia's 3-day parliamentary elections.

🇷🇺🇺🇦Kirishi's KINEF refinery had just finished months of repairs from an earlier Ukrainian strike and was preparing to restart when a drone hit it again overnight. This is one of Russia's largest refineries, processing about 20 million tons of oil a year, roughly 6.6% of the country's total refining capacity and it produces motor, aviation and diesel fuel that supplies Russian troops. The strike landed alongside hits on Yeysk airfield and a drone launch site in Millerovo, part of Ukraine's wider campaign against Russian oil infrastructure and military sites. Moscow has already warned it is preparing what it called massive strikes against Ukrainian energy facilities in response.

🇸🇦 Aramco's Jizan refinery has reportedly sustained a significant hit following a recent Houthi drone attack. The facility is a major 400,000 barrel per day refinery on Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast, near the Yemeni border. 🇾🇪 The Houthis have targeted the strategic city and its refinery dozens of times over the years, including several strikes in the past few days, making it a persistent security challenge for Riyadh.

🧊🛢️ Russia just pushed an oil convoy beyond 81.5°N, potentially the northernmost route ever taken by ordinary tankers. At least 8 tankers carrying nearly 1M tonnes of oil are heading to China, forced almost 1,000 km north around heavy ice. Some reportedly lack proper ice class.