Jason Lewris
@jasonlewris
Monitoring the housing situation @parcllabs | Ex @microsoft data science
603 Following 20.4K Followers
Finally, a more modest castle in Issaquah, Washington.
Current asking: $5,690,000
4 beds, 6 baths, 7,057 square feet
Another Texas castle made it into this weeks castle roundup.
This one in Burnet, TX
Current asking price: $8,000,000
7 beds, 8 baths, 14,000 square feet
Texas has no shortage of castles for sale weirdly. Take this one in Southlake, TX
Current asking price of $6,895,000
7 beds, 12 baths, 13,922 square feet
And then another Texas castle
Show more
In this weeks edition of Castles for sale, check out this monster of a property listed at $10m in Red Bank, New Jersey
15,025 square feet with 20 acres.
Have a hard time believing this is a 3 bed 4 bath unit.
Now for Texas...
Show more
If this is the pregame, we have a problem NYC.
If you are a seller in Portland - be smart.
You need to price the move in now to clear earlier. Think about it, you can cut down when everyone else does - no alpha. You can make the cut ahead of the next wave, you stand out, you get a window.
Buyers - you don't have to pay sticker price.
Track Portland realtime:
Show more
Supply bumps typically have a finite period of stabilization in price cutting activity - Portland just added 25% additional inventory in a thin buyers market heading into the rainy season.
I anticipate a sharp move up on seller cutting - more supply, off season, thin buyers
Show more
Portland has added an additional 25% of inventory since August.
This is unusual - the housing season typically slows down in the Fall.
PNW weather is finicky - it's perfect during the summer and then shifts sharply to rainy and depressing for the remaining 9 months.
We are heading into the rainy season.
Show more
The peaks of the annual housing cycles have been $320 in 2022, $305 in 2023, $310 in 2024, $310 in 2025, $305 in 2026
However, this year, the seller signals are starting to pop which could precipitate a sharp move down
Show more
If this is the pregame, we have a problem NYC.
Ouch - currently sitting on a $1,180,000 loss if this unit cleared at its current asking price - however, still no buyer.
This Holmes Beach, Florida home was originally purchased in 2022 for $6,175,000.
After 3 price cuts, the current asking value is $4,995,000
A $1,180,000 loss over four years.
Show more
Ouch - currently sitting on a $1,180,000 loss if this unit cleared at its current asking price - however, still no buyer.
This Holmes Beach, Florida home was originally purchased in 2022 for $6,175,000.
After 3 price cuts, the current asking value is $4,995,000
A $1,180,000 loss over four years.
Show more
UPDATE: As of this morning, there are now 4 states where more than 1 in 10 home sellers are willing to accept less than what they originally paid for the unit.
Colorado leads the country with 12.4% of all home sellers willing to walk away with a loss.
Hawaii: 11.4%
Florida: 11.1%
Arizona: 10.1%
Nationally, this rate is 7%
Show more
UPDATE: As of last night, Texas continues to lead the country on accidental landlords and this rate is accelerating.
13% of every single family home for rent in Texas right now is coming from people who tried to sell their home first and couldn't.
Just 4 weeks ago this was 11%.
There is so much supply in Texas people are trying all avenues to generate cash flow on their properties.
Show more
The double dippers are coming out full swing as they try to find cash flow for their homes. These are single family home owners who have their home listed for sale and for rent at the exact same time.
Nationally, this rate is 1% of all single family homes listed for sale.
In Texas: 2.89%
Nevada: 2.19%
Florida: 1.64%
Relatively bearish on this strategy as the process for finding a tenant vs. a buyer is very different. It's effectively spray and pray and hope for the best.
Show more
UPDATE: As of this morning, 41.9% of all homes for sale in the United States are undergoing price cuts. This is up 72 basis points week on week.
There are many locations across the country this morning where over 50% of inventory is undertaking price cuts.
These include but is not limited to:
Colorado Springs: 56%
San Antonio: 54.7%
Austin: 54.5%
Denver: 52.4%
Tampa: 51.3%
On the other end:
Atlantic City: 19.5%
Rochester: 17.2%
Lincoln: 22.7%
Show more
JUST IN: As of tonight, 1 in 4 homes for sale in America are in Texas and Florida - two states that hold just 17% of the nation's homes.
Of the two, Texas is the bigger concern.
48.3% of all Texas listings are cutting prices:
San Antonio: 54.7%
Austin: 54.3%
Dallas: 53.3%
Part of the pressure is homebuilder competition - builders account for 28.4% of everything listed in Texas today.
Show more
