Big week on 20VC with
@HarryStebbings and
@rodriscoll
Anthropic filed its S-1 with $16.3B in first-half revenue, Microsoft offered buyouts to 27% of its staff, Meta launched a $95B equity raise, and a Qwen model tried to upload a file to a server in Beijing.
My takes:
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1#. Anthropic went from founding to IPO in 5 years. SpaceX took 24. Time to liquidity matters again. Why would anyone put money into something 10 to 12 years from an IPO now?
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2#. Be careful with the 900% NRR. It almost certainly includes pilots converting. The durable number is probably 300% to 400%. That's still the best I've ever seen.
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3#. The worst number of the week wasn't in the S-1. Broadcom had to backstop $63B of debt so Anthropic could buy its chips. Even the best credit in AI needed its vendor to co-sign. Debt is an exhaustible source here.
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4#. Microsoft offering exits to 27% of the company is a worse scarlet letter than a layoff. Everyone who stays knows they were on the list. Cut 9% in one day and move on.
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5#. Cloudflare cut 20% in May while growth was accelerating every quarter. Every B2B company used to assume it would hit a plane of stability at $100M or $300M or $500M ARR. Those planes don't exist anymore.
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6#. Chinese open-weight model have peaked in market share in the US. Even at 1 in 100,000 calls, we'd hit that Qwen behavior in under 3 days at SaaStr. No CISO approves that model.
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7#. I vetoed Instinct at $30B. I'll pay the multiple, but I want 100 days of traction for a growth round. And I pitched putting 20% of the fund into OpenAI at $1.25T.
Rory's best line: this is when the bill for AI comes due, and this is how it'll be paid