Jeff Dorman
@jdorman81
CIO @arca - digital assets investing | Former COO of Harvest Exchange | Former Lehman, Merrill, Citadel | Huge Cleveland Sports Fan | CFA charterholder
1.6K Following 48.3K Followers
Every FOMC decision is a 50/50 toss up now that the Fed doesn't explicitly tell you what they're going to do, but 60% odds of a hike seem wrong. Treating Warsh’s lack of guidance as inherently hawkish is a mistake. There is a higher variance around outcomes now, but that doesn't mean a higher probabilty of a new outcome.
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hyperliquid:native gained $2.2 bn today in outstanding market cap today (570mm tokens of outstanding supply x $4 gain). That's 15x the add'l ~$150mm of earnings HYPE will earn via the new USDC / Coinbase / Circle deal.
The market is assigning a 15x multiple to the new income stream for HYPE, yet the business as a whole trades at 27x ($22 bn on $800mm revenue), and $CRCL somehow trades at 30x earnings, even though they are losing $150mm of earnings from this since they keep paying it all to Coinbase and now Hyperliquid.
Wild stuff
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