Jon Ma(@jonbma):HERE'S ANTHROPIC NET ARR: Anthropic Gross ARR reported to be $65B in July '26 and at $10B net new ARR / month you get $85B Q3'26 and $115B Q4'26. If you remove: - Meta ($5B ARR) - Payout to AWS Bedrock / GCP (20-25% API volume assume 20% take rate - 2% of all API volume is Chinese labd distilling. You get to: $62B Net ARR Q3'26 $82B Net ARR Q4'26. At 20x EV/ARR that implies $1.3T Q3'26 numbers and $1.6T Q4'26. Makes the pre-IPO price of $1.4T on @prestocks make sense.

Jon Ma

@jonbma

CEO @Artemis | ex @InsightPartners @Whalerock @Publiccomps | Fintech / Software Analyst

Joined March 2009

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Jon Ma@jonbma

2026.09.06 20:47

HERE'S ANTHROPIC NET ARR: Anthropic Gross ARR reported to be $65B in July '26 and at $10B net new ARR / month you get $85B Q3'26 and $115B Q4'26. If you remove: - Meta ($5B ARR) - Payout to AWS Bedrock / GCP (20-25% API volume assume 20% take rate - 2% of all API volume is Chinese labd distilling. You get to: $62B Net ARR Q3'26 $82B Net ARR Q4'26. At 20x EV/ARR that implies $1.3T Q3'26 numbers and $1.6T Q4'26. Makes the pre-IPO price of $1.4T on @prestocks make sense.