base:0x940181a94a35a4569e4529a3cdfb74e38fd98631 looks primed to rip higher over the next 10 days before the Aero upgrade
I had previously weighted base:0x940181a94a35a4569e4529a3cdfb74e38fd98631 slightly lower in my core positions because I worried that the tokenomics were too complicated for institutions and whales to understand and feel comfortable bidding.
@citrini not only included base:0x940181a94a35a4569e4529a3cdfb74e38fd98631 in their token basket, they had it at the same weight as $HYPE and nearly twice the weight of ethereum:0x1f9840a85d5af5bf1d1762f925bdaddc4201f984. Don't think the market has fully digested how much that stamp of approval means.
I also worried that there could be some last minute delay, as the previous Aero launch date delay led to a considerable nuke.
With the greenlight for launch on 10/21 and the recognition from Citrini, both of those risks are removed, and I now feel considerably higher conviction on base:0x940181a94a35a4569e4529a3cdfb74e38fd98631.
Previously to the Citrini piece, I expected most people to stay sidelined and wait for the flywheel to fundamentally prove itself post Aero upgrade.
@wagmiAlexander expects spot volumes to roughly double by EOY, so that was my timeline where a rerating would organically occur without speculative fervor.
I'm now of the opinion that this recent bit of attention will cause price to lead fundamentals, and we might actually get a real pre-upgrade breakout.
The early August 2025 price action where base:0x940181a94a35a4569e4529a3cdfb74e38fd98631 doubled from $0.75 to $1.50 in just 10 days is a good example of what I think could happen in the pre-upgrade window. Due to how much supply is locked in LPs and veAERO, base:0x940181a94a35a4569e4529a3cdfb74e38fd98631 is naturally extremely reflexive.
It's very difficult to justify why ethereum:0x1f9840a85d5af5bf1d1762f925bdaddc4201f984 is trading at 5x the market cap of base:0x940181a94a35a4569e4529a3cdfb74e38fd98631. I don't expect parity until after the upgrade, but I do think there's a world where base:0x940181a94a35a4569e4529a3cdfb74e38fd98631 rerates to 50% of ethereum:0x1f9840a85d5af5bf1d1762f925bdaddc4201f984 market cap as the sidelined scramble to get exposure prior to the 10/21 upgrade. This coincides nicely with a run at the previous base:0x940181a94a35a4569e4529a3cdfb74e38fd98631 ATH of ~$2.30.