isaac newton went broke in the south sea bubble... if you have agi, your scammers have agi^2 or something like that.
you cannot simultaneously believe that AGI is coming and that agents will be getting scammed in commerce
Deposit tokens vs stablecoins got framed as a fight. From where we're looking it looks more like a stack. Deposit tokens make good reserves, both for the banks and sensitive holders like corporate treasuries: they pay interest and stay inside the bank perimeter. Stablecoins make good bearer money: anyone can hold, no account needed.
Put one under the other and an issuer can rebalance reserves in code, at 3am on a Sunday, instead of through wires and cutoff times, leading to a better experience for everyone involved.
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Who are the best teams doing receivables financing onchain today?
Seeing a ton of demand from enterprises
Whenever anyone talks about complexity theory or improving the asymptotic rate, I always think back to my favorite result in machine learning (cc
@dankrad )
People love to tell you about how actually P=NP won't necessarily break cryptography because algorithms in P can still have insane constants/exponents
People worry about AI but there are days where it just gets me...
An underrated advantage of building on Tempo is Lindsey and our legal team! Compliance isn't something you bolt on at the end, and they help us (and our partners!) launch novel products, the right way, from day one. Their take on the final GENIUS rule is worth a read...
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Good news for businesses building on
@tempo: the OCC’s final GENIUS rule includes changes that are net positive for the future of finance and Tempo’s partners. Read more here:
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tfw they tell you that only competent people suffer from impostor syndrome so you start wondering whether your impostor syndrome is fake
Nice paper! I wonder if we can see these predicted effects already: for example are job descriptions changing already to focus on the bottlenecks?
Very happy to share a new paper, “Technology Bottlenecks: Measuring Where AI Could Raise the Value of Work It Cannot Yet Do.”
AI exposure measures ask about the work AI is capable of doing. We ask instead where the marginal value of work AI cannot yet do may rise as AI speeds up the rest of the job.
To do so, we employ 288 million U.S. job postings mapped line by line to their closest O*NET tasks and GPT-4 feasibility ratings from Eloundou et al. (2024) to construct a measure, “bottleneck pressure,” for each task in each occupation that posts it.
Using a simple task-based framework, we derive this pressure at the task level, showing that for an AI-infeasible task it is the exposure of the occupation that posts it, so the same task can face very different bottleneck pressure in different jobs.
Reporting bottleneck pressure alongside AI exposure shows both the scope for AI to perform work and where improving the work it cannot do may pay off more as capabilities expand.
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Stablecoin-first doesn't mean payments-only. Payments are the base layer, but the bigger story is programmable real-world finance, opening up corridors and possibilities that didn't exist before. That's what we're building with partners like
@eldoradoio and
@talamobile. Excited!
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El Dorado is bringing embedded credit into the wallet its customers already use.
Starting in Bolivia, eligible users will be able to borrow without collateral, with
@talamobile providing the capital and loans disbursed and repaid in USDT on
@tempo.
Learn more in
@stablecoing's post below:
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We're seeing strong demand for onchain credit
@tempo across a wide range of use cases, from consumer lending to prefunding to receivables financing.
Congrats to
@eldoradoio and
@Tala on launching uncollateralized credit in Bolivia!
If you're working on anything in credit, we'd love to hear from you.
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B2C credit in emerging markets is largely unaddressed today. Less than 1 in 10 Bolivians are able to access credit via traditional banks
This presents a huge opportunity for global onchain originators like
@talamobile to step in and provide funding using stablecoins to everyday consumers via neobanks like
@eldoradoio
Excited to be working with both teams to roll out this product on
@tempo. More to come!
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The Tempo team is at Money 20/20 to discuss the future of stablecoin financial products!
Find us at MC-15, Money Hall, in The Venetian
We're heading toward a monetary world where the gap between universal banks and the new generation of banks is going to become enormous. The bundle that makes up the deposit franchise (whether because of ignorance about how credit expansion works, or because of shifts in consumer habits) no longer justifies how slow and poorly remunerated money is inside the banking system.
As a result, the generation of comfortable, sticky bank deposits is giving way to a more versatile, faster, more mercenary generation (in the good sense of the word), with greater access to different financial instruments.
The world is going to have to face a question that we're not really asking right now, and which is basically a bet on the future: who is going to hold all the duration in the credit system. Whether because of business incentives or simply because of their position of power, banks have stretched the gum too far when capturing NIM by relying on the idea that "the customer isn’t incentivized to move money out of the bank".
With an unstoppable rise in deposit beta, this leaves us with three main consequences:
- A boom in narrow banks that flip the business model and, instead of living off NIM, live off subscriptions and other services. A clear example is Revolut, with a 448% LCR and a loan-to-deposit ratio of roughly 6.2%, living mainly off cash equivalents, not that different from a stablecoin issuer.
- Concentration among universal correspondent banks that will be the only ones still capable of holding duration to maturity on their balance sheet thanks to their own resources, but which will be increasingly incentivized to simply originate and securitize, because covering that duration is going to become much harder and riskier.
- Growth of the shadow banking system, which will be the main client for these loans and the main recycler of that duration.
The two extreme risk tails that come out of this are greater concentration among the so-called too-big-to-fail banks (and the difficulty of new members joining that select club because of how hard it is to scale a bank to that point), and the growth of unregulated shadow banking, which opens the door to greater fragility in runs and more opacity.
It’s honestly a beautiful time to be alive.
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Maybe the best news I receive this year: I never have to talk to customer service again
Every time a colleague changes their slack pfp it breaks my reptilian brain slack inhalation. There should be rules/ rate limits on this.
As always, anything but the metric system...
Half of a Scaramucci is called a Zacharia.
Everyone agrees privacy is super important to bring more people onchain. The devil is in the details: getting everything to work end-to-end: not just privacy, but privacy that works, for the builder and their customers.
We're excite to share more about our approach: Tempo Zones. Zones are Tempo native validiums, built from the ground up to enable core payments use-cases: transfers, but also earn vaults, card spending, and more. Everything is built to be easy for builders to integrate.
We're excited for Zones to graduate to mainnet soon! If you're interested in offering privacy to your users, reach out!
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Anything but the metric system.
This is is a very cool result imo: a simple miner strategy that is an equilibrium (no profitable individual deviation, unlike follow the longest chain and the deviations shown in the selfish mining lit)
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New paper (with Minghao Pan and Omer Tamuz)🚨
Bitcoin functions without a central intermediary, but the decentralized consensus among miners is vulnerable to profitable deviations.
We show how Bitcoin’s intended decentralized consensus can be sustained in equilibrium, without redesigning the chain.🧵
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