Announcing the @Paradigm Frontiers 2026 speakers! Some of my favorite people on Crypto x AI x Robotics x Devtools. @rauchg / Vercel @LegNeato / VectorWare @fat / Pierre Computer Company @sqs / Amp @SurajNair_1 / Physical Intelligence @0xKitsune / Tempo @danrobinson / Paradigm+Tempo Oct 12-14 - Fort Mason, San Francisco Apply by Aug 20th below.

Incidentally I am conceding this bet. Strictly speaking it hasn’t resolved (I think we’ve yet to see an Annals-quality number theory paper) but it’s clear I was wrong about what capabilities were necessary to produce one, and it’s just a matter of time.

Markets lose an estimated $120 billion annually to trapped liquidity, fees, and settlement delays. Our new report "Creating More Liquidity Mobility in Markets" looks at how money could move across payments, securities, margin, and repo instead of sitting in separate systems.

An internal version of Astra, @OpenAI’s next major model family, solved 10 major open problems in mathematics, quantum complexity, and theoretical computer science. We believe it will be a major step for scientific reasoning.

NEW @GwartyGwart w/ @ccatalini: Open source models & AI value accrual "If intelligence is really becoming cheap, commodified... then there's going to be a new bottleneck. And I think people in crypto should be excited about this because that bottleneck turns out to be verification." Brought to you by @ellipsis_labs

Instead of something lame like disproving the jacobian conjecture I decided to have Claude wire together a telegram bot + @DoorDash CLI to order me juice Next feature release will be one shot pad thai mode if anyone wants repo access

Tokenized Money for Banks: Tokenized deposits 1A. Tokenized deposit An existing deposit recorded on a tokenized ledger. -Balance-sheet impact: If the legal claim and redemption terms remain unchanged, capital, LCR and NSFR should broadly follow the underlying deposit. -Advantage: Programmability with the smallest prudential departure from conventional deposits. 1B. Deposit token A native transferable token that represents a direct, unsecured claim on the issuing bank. -Balance-sheet impact: No automatic increase in RWA, but Basel does not permit stable-retail-deposit treatment. If holders cannot always be identified, it is treated as unsecured wholesale funding, weakening LCR and NSFR. -Advantage: Bank money that can circulate beyond the bank’s conventional ledger. First-party stablecoins 2A. Own balance A reserve-backed stablecoin issued directly by the bank. - Balance-sheet impact: If backed by segregated assets, redemptions within 30 days receive a 100% LCR outflow before eligible HQLA offsets. Segregated reserves also attract NSFR encumbrance treatment, while issuance can increase leverage exposure. - Advantage: Full control over issuance, reserves, distribution and economics. 2B. Subsidiary A bank-owned entity issues the stablecoin from a separate legal balance sheet. - Balance-sheet impact: If consolidated, much of the prudential impact returns to the banking group. - Advantage: Legal separation and dedicated governance. 2C. Consortium Multiple banks issue through a common entity or shared arrangement. - Balance-sheet impact: The direct effect depends on consolidation and commitments. Equity stakes, guarantees, redemption obligations and liquidity facilities can consume CET1, leverage and LCR capacity. - Advantage: Shared infrastructure and broader distribution without one bank carrying the entire system. Third-party stablecoins 3A. Prefunded The bank holds third-party stablecoins before customer demand arises. - Balance-sheet impact: Third-party issued stablecoins normally receives at least 85% RSF and produces no assumed LCR inflow. Replacing cash or reserves with it therefore weakens liquidity ratios. Capital treatment depends on its Basel classification. - Advantage: Liquidity, immediate availability, product distribution and operational simplicity. 3B. Secured loan The bank finances stablecoin liquidity through a collateralized loan. - Balance-sheet impact: The loan enters RWA and leverage exposure. Collateral reduces capital only if Basel recognizes it, while funding the loan with HQLA can weaken LCR and NSFR. - Advantage: Provides liquidity without holding the stablecoin inventory directly. If you’d like to find out more, I’ve included the research paper in the first comment

I just posted a new paper which I've been working on for a while now. Partly inspired by what @joshgans and @Afinetheorem did for their paper recently, I made an interactive that takes you through the main ideas in a more…interactive…way.

One hot take of mine is that in the medium term almost all economically-significant stablecoin transactions will be subject to some sort of netting/liquidity-savings mechanism, and the networks or platforms that figure this out first will become hard to unseat.