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Dan Robinson
@danrobinson
coder / lawyer. research at @paradigm. automated research reply guy
1.5K Following    85.6K Followers
This should be titled "0x routing made a mistake" If you're an aggregator, you can't just route to arbitrary hooks! It's why Uniswap's own router has an approval process
Incredible timeline where the anti-monopoly fanatics, the a16z accelerationists, and the stochastic-parrot people are all aligned against letting the frontier labs decide not to destroy the world
anti-monopoly guys when AI companies ask for anti-trust waivers to coordinate an AI slowdown
anti-monopoly guys when AI companies ask for anti-trust waivers to coordinate an AI slowdown
This doesn't make any sense. Pacing the frontier would erode these firms' competitive advantage over open source models. It's just the case that Musk, Altman, and Amodei all got into AI work in the first place specifically due to x-risk fears.
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Could existing alignment audits have caught the behaviors in the OpenAI-HuggingFace incident before they happened? As a first step, we reproduced the incident with public models. 🧵
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We Must Pace the Frontier: I’ve written a new essay on why the AI industry should slow down, with a three-part plan for doing so. Anthropic is unilaterally committing to the first of these steps. We’ll provide third-party evaluators with permanent, employee-level access to our systems, so that they can verify adherence to our safety measures, report on incidents, and assess models’ alignment during training. You can read the full post here:
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This is a product of extraordinary employee bargaining power just as surely as the $1M+ salaries are. A lab that banned talking about the stakes would lose employees to the rival lab that allowed it. This will change if they succeed at replacing the researchers with AI.
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I think mathematicians as a community actually have quite a lot of power over how automated math research goes in the short term The labs and vibeprovers are expending all this effort to impress mathematicians. If they withhold their approval I think the effort will respond
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“I don't really care about science fiction... We need to actually talk about… what's actually happening with the agent swarms” is the most perfect encapsulation of the vibes of Q3 2026 I have seen
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Are open-weight models good for American prosperity? We're hosting a Hamilton Society debate on that question, including participation from @deanwball and @karan4d! Saturday, September 19 in SF Space is limited; apply to attend here:
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It's kinda wild that someone invented an ideology around having correct instead of incorrect beliefs and that was enough for its splinter groups to take over the economy within 20 years
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Can someone introduce me to the PR firm that is able to get me 188,000 retweets
This post looks like the start of a VERY sophisticated and well-funded PR operation to get support for Democrats to regulate AI into oblivion. Let me show you how it works: 1.) This guy, with minimal followers and no previous account activity, goes to the Wall Street Journal which publishes an exclusive with quotes from him on his resignation 18 minutes BEFORE this post goes up. Planning was clearly done in advance. 2.) Within hours, it has tens of thousands of reposts and the account has 100k+ followers. The post is punchy, quotable, it almost seems professionally written. The first three accounts to quote tweet it all do so within 15 minutes of the initial posting. Remember, this account had basically zero engagement beforehand, so an organic reach explanation seems unlikely. According to Grok those accounts are @_NathanCalvin (General Counsel at Encode AI), @peterwildeford (Head of Policy at the AI Policy Network), and @DKokotajlo (Head of the AI Futures Project), all of which are up-and-coming AI-Doomer policy advocacy nonprofits. The AI Futures Project website says it is funded “primarily” by the Survival and Flourishing Fund, which says on its own website that it has advised Jaan Tallinn, Skype creator and one of the leading investors in Anthropic, to grant over $2.5 million to the AI Futures Project since 2024. Encode AI says on its website that it is ALSO funded by the Survival and Flourishing Fund, which in turn says that it told Anthropic investor Jaan Tallinn to grant $516,000 to Encode AI in 2025. And wouldn’t you know it, the Survival and Flourishing Fund ALSO says it told Jaan Tallinn to grant $2 million to the AI Policy Institute, the 501(c)(3) affiliate of the AI Policy Network, as well. What are the odds that the first three quote tweets of Coxon’s post would all be major AI-restriction policy advocates funded generously by the same donor, who also happens to be one of the leading investors in, and a board member of, Anthropic, the company Coxon was resigning from? And all within 15 minutes of posting (two within ten)? 3.) Jacob Coxon doesn’t have much of a resume, but we do know that, in 2022, he got a $20,159 scholarship for the “long term future scholarship program” from the Good Ventures Foundation, one of the philanthropic vehicles of Dustin Moskovitz, a notorious AI-doomer who has spent tens if not hundreds of millions on policy advocacy to strictly regulate AI, while also being an Anthropic Investor himself. It also just so happens that the 14th person to quote Coxon’s post was @MaxNadeau_ (27 minutes after posting) who is the program officer for the Technical AI Safety team at Coefficient Giving, another of Moskovitz’s philanthropic spending vehicles. Max is not a frequent poster, his last posts before quoting Coxon were before Labor Day, but he was remarkably quick off the mark for this one. 4.) Basically every major Democrat politician and candidate has suddenly glommed on to this post, and conveniently, as the people cry out foe answers, Bernie Sanders already has a bill written to “ban super intelligence” and regulate AI into oblivion, and will be releasing later this week. The bill, among many other things, will create “a new cabinet-level federal agency to safeguard the public from the dangers of artificial intelligence” that will be “advised by an Artificial Intelligence Advisory Board comprised of experts on artificial intelligence.” Do you think, perhaps, Anthropic and its many investors who fund AI policy advocacy might have interest in getting to place a pet “expert” on the board of an entity that dictates what AI is and isn’t allowed to do? And isn’t it fortuitous that this whistleblower came forward with his oh-so scary stories so close in proximity to the release of the most radical piece of AI legislation ever introduced?
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Thinking about the impact of @hilbertspaess’s thread last night, I think it was so powerful because unlike Dario he wasn’t famous. There’s a great adage about politics I’ve used: “No one will believe an accusation from a president; but they’ll believe a confession from anyone.”
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AI POLITICS IS ABOUT TO EXPLODE In the newsletter, I wrote about how much has changed in just the last few weeks since I posted the below tweet.
This is a pretty cool idea
Today we’re launching Project Tailwind, a call for founders to start ambitious new AI safety initiatives: We’re looking for great people to engage seriously with the risks of transformative AI, and to create the research, technologies, and institutions that will help humanity navigate them. There are critical, basic problems that no one owns. Over the last several months, my team at @coeff_giving brainstormed ideas we’d be excited to fund if we could find a promising founder, and the list quickly grew to more than 200 entries. We’ve narrowed it down to our favorites, but we also expect the best founders to bring their own ideas: We’re providing funding at three levels: 1️⃣ Pre-seed: $200k to $2m to develop an idea and build a team 2️⃣ Seed: $2m to $20m to launch and scale 3️⃣ Scale: $20m to $200m+ for proven teams to scale, or world-class teams to start If you’re excited about something on our list, or you have another proposal for driving the field forward, you should get involved: There are more good projects than there are people to work on them. Please help us make that stop being true! Also hi, I’m Emily! This is my first tweet. I lead AI and biosecurity grantmaking at @coeff_giving.
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you might think 'Gemma on TPU' would be pretty saturated, but there's 2x on the table if you have someone as smart as @transmissions11 :----)
we're about to release @tempo an aggregation service for routing across both tools and across other aggregators like a search engine where you ask for outcomes instead of specific tools and it figures out what needs to be stitched together & how partners at tempo dot xyz
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openai should appoint an Ambassador to Anthropic and anthropic should do the same, then they can exchange formal diplomatic communiques of protest, summon each other’s representatives, and so on
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This is undeniably a loss for people who like to tell others what they are working on One possible response is to focus on less legible projects Even if an AI could have scooped the Grothendieck program, who else could have understood what to ask it for
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AI-soluble domains (cyber, math) now seem to be a dark forest where humming datacenters redeploy 10K agent swarms of compute toward the most worthy problems. Just knowing that a vulnerability exists or a math problem may be solvable is sufficient to attract such a swarm.
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