Tarek Mansour(@mansourtarek_):"Doug Lorch appears unassuming - a retired IBM programmer with a gray beard, glasses, and a duck Facebook avatar, living quietly in Santa Barbara and driving a red Miata. Doug has no special expertise in international affairs, but he has a healthy curiosity about what's happening. He reads the New York Times. He can find Kazakhstan on a map. So he volunteered for the Good Judgment Project. Once a day, for an hour or so, his dining room table became his forecasting center, where he opened his laptop, read the news, and tried to anticipate the fate of the world." - Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

2026.10.09 18:48

"Doug Lorch appears unassuming - a retired IBM programmer with a gray beard, glasses, and a duck Facebook avatar, living quietly in Santa Barbara and driving a red Miata. Doug has no special expertise in international affairs, but he has a healthy curiosity about what's happening. He reads the New York Times. He can find Kazakhstan on a map. So he volunteered for the Good Judgment Project. Once a day, for an hour or so, his dining room table became his forecasting center, where he opened his laptop, read the news, and tried to anticipate the fate of the world." - Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

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