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martin_casado
@martin_casado
@ a16z
3.5K Following    99.2K Followers
I don’t agree. More money in private markets means more TAM and value created in private markets. I just don’t understand zero sum thinking for VCs. Isn’t the entire belief structure that innovative tech creates net new value?
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SOTA next frame prediction model, now real time. Wild how fast this stuff moves. Also, sick video :)
Who is working on home automation so I can run and talk to my house via @bot ? Any projects I can contribute to?
Security researchers and operators from the 90s suiting back up ...
And interesting frontier lab strategy would be to encourage distillation, set price that mass distillation is unit economic positive, and then just focus on building the best models. This results is a downstream ecosystem addicted to you. And with no capability to surpass.
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I wonder if we'll get to a point where being distilled becomes profitable to the labs. If they spend X to create a model. And more than 20 companies pay 1/20th of that to distill it. They're in the money. It's a new form of infra where downstream handles distribution.
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If they invite me, you'll need to make this log scale.
I don’t normally write these things. But this one hits a bit different. Nearly three years ago I told a16z I wanted to spend part time outside the firm helping @drfeifei start and build a frontier model company. And what followed were some of the most remarkable moments of my career. From being at the founding table. To watching the first git commits. Seeing the very early very rough results that hinted at something much greater. Contributing to the open source. Watching the creation of new model architectures that pushed the state of the art in multiple areas. I saw the team spin magic from nothing again and again. And I was very privileged to be within the walls. I’m very proud of what was accomplished, and am so excited for what lies ahead. So congratulations to AMD for entering into an agreement with the leading spatial intelligence frontier lab. And congratulations to the World Labs team on a partner that has the vision, ambition and leadership to be the top AI technology provider globally. Also congratulations to Dr. Su and Dr. Li. Two world class CEOs with a common vision. The both of you working together is unimaginably legendary. Arguably the smartest leaders in tech with the shared goal of building the world's leading AI capabilities. I know you both share an optimistic view of AIs ability to aid humanity. We need far more of that. As everyone knows. I’m World Lab’s biggest fan. And will remain so. Thanks to @drfeifei , @BenMildenhall , @jcjohnss and the entire team for letting me tag along. What a crazy fucking ride. You stood at the frontier, and moved it. And will continue to. Again, many congratulations to everyone involved. The future of AI will be so much brighter with this partnership. I can’t wait to see where it leads. Here’s to new worlds!
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I guess it really might be the case that math and physics are just apps of computer science.
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OK ok, hear me out. Let's assume the the air gapped computer has no speaker. No way to emit sound. But the AI is able to run the CPU fast enough to kick on the fan. Which can can be picked up by any other computer within audio range (non air gapped computers will likely have microphones). That's at least a covert channel of one bit per ... uhhh ... 10min or so.
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"Why only pace, why not pause? This stuff sounds really dangerous"
Utter and total insanity(!!!) My vote for most hardcore splat demo ever. DOOM entirely in splats. Sprites, status bar, characters, gun rendering, all splats. Rendering and sorting with WebGPU. Dynamic lighting updating splats in real time. Sparkjs LoD to render entire levels.
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OK, let me irritate everyone for a moment ... The non cynical view here is that the labs are trying to navigate impending, unsophisticated federal regulation and a "high strung", well financed doomer complex. And it's just a tough, tough spot to be in. It's entirely consistent to applaud their attempts to find a governance approach to questions around safety and security. To express skepticism about the proposal. And also express concerns about the larger safetyist complex. It's just important not to conflate the three. I'll put aside rhetoric on near term species extinction. Like any major epoch of our industry, new technologies have security implications. And I do think we're in a much better spot with open dialog between Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX on how best to handle, whether it's pacing or not, an independent oversight body or not. (I'm in the "not" camp ... ) I joke in exasperation about heavy handed federal regulation which would clearly be disastrous for all of us. Unfortunately I do think it's a likely outcome if we don't collectively get our shit together. I have no special knowledge. But from what I've gathered over the last few days, the labs really are trying to do the right thing here. It's a very complex and shifting landscape. And the broader safety complex still sucks and continues to be a national security risk.
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Wow! Let's pace that shit for sure ...
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What Is To Be Done? I propose a simple plan: Big AI companies should be allowed to build AI as fast and aggressively as they can – but not allowed to achieve regulatory capture, not allowed to establish a government-protect cartel that is insulated from market competition due to incorrect claims of AI risk. This will maximize the technological and societal payoff from the amazing capabilities of these companies, which are jewels of modern capitalism. Startup AI companies should be allowed to build AI as fast and aggressively as they can. They should neither confront government-granted protection of big companies, nor should they receive government assistance. They should simply be allowed to compete. If and as startups don’t succeed, their presence in the market will also continuously motivate big companies to be their best – our economies and societies win either way. Open source AI should be allowed to freely proliferate and compete with both big AI companies and startups. There should be no regulatory barriers to open source whatsoever. Even when open source does not beat companies, its widespread availability is a boon to students all over the world who want to learn how to build and use AI to become part of the technological future, and will ensure that AI is available to everyone who can benefit from it no matter who they are or how much money they have. To offset the risk of bad people doing bad things with AI, governments working in partnership with the private sector should vigorously engage in each area of potential risk to use AI to maximize society’s defensive capabilities. This shouldn’t be limited to AI-enabled risks but also more general problems such as malnutrition, disease, and climate. AI can be an incredibly powerful tool for solving problems, and we should embrace it as such. To prevent the risk of China achieving global AI dominance, we should use the full power of our private sector, our scientific establishment, and our governments in concert to drive American and Western AI to absolute global dominance, including ultimately inside China itself. We win, they lose. And that is how we use AI to save the world. It’s time to build.
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Dario has written that we need to “pace the frontier,” and Sam has agreed. People may be surprised by my response: go ahead. You guys are the frontier. By any reasonable metric — market share, revenue growth, model capability — the two of you have a duopoly on frontier intelligence. You’ve also claimed the lead is widening because of recursive self-improvement. I don’t see what you see in the lab. If the unreleased models are scary enough that you think you should slow down, I support your decision to be responsible. But stop pretending you need anyone else’s permission. Stop pretending antitrust law has to be suspended so you can form a cartel. Stop pretending you need a regulatory approval process that supersedes product liability. Stop pretending METR is independent when it is intertwined with Anthropic’s investors and staff. Stop pretending you need those same evaluators to police competitors who aren’t even at the frontier. Most of all, stop pretending the motivation to slow down is purely altruistic. You face massive product-liability exposure if your products enable a truly damaging cyberattack. The market already punishes models that behave in unpredictable or unauthorized ways. After the Hugging Face episode, it is simply good business for OpenAI and Anthropic to trade some raw power for reliability and predictability. Call it alignment if you want. It is also just giving customers what they want. Pacing the frontier would also create breathing room for a more intelligent conversation about regulation than Bernie Sanders’ “shut it all down.” China is very unlikely to join a global agreement, as you know, and that has to be taken into account as well. So go ahead and pace the frontier. You are the ones setting it. The easiest way not to build superintelligence is for you to agree not to build it. Demanding your preferred regulatory framework as the price of that will look like blackmail of the public and the political system. So just do it. If you do, you’ll buy goodwill for the next conversation. If you don’t, we’ll know this was just another bid for regulatory capture — or an election-season psyop.
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Next week, @mattyp @roshan_s and myself will be speedrunning building a new company using only Grok @Bot on the Grok Bot Galaxy livestream! We’ve been given just 3 days to do it, or else we might be turned into pizza 🤪 it will be so fun and I hope to see you on the livestream! I will have to miss the Cursor Compile conf in London and Amsterdam though. I will instead record an extended version of my talk and make it freely available here. So stay tuned for that post!
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