Cassandra Unchained
@michaeljburry
Official X account for Michael Burry, MD, called "Cassandra" by Warren Buffett. Now on Substack
36 Following 2.1M Followers
From 2000, it is not like the stocks that did great the next 5 years suddenly started growing like dotcoms. They doubled, tripled & quadrupled because price mattered again.
Price did not matter from 1998 LTCM to March of 2000. Complete idiots made permanent fortunes during that span. We still hear from one of them regularly.
By summer of 2002, price – it most certainly did matter. Ask any owner of MCI Senior bonds at the time.
Today, price does not matter.
Idiots, this is Trump’s market. It is your time to shine.
When price matters again, you will have no idea what happened, and no one will will even have the heart to tell you.
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Am I the last bear?
When history's contemporaneous writers can find no other target.
Around and around we go.
Nvidia to guarantee $200 billion of ChatGPT’s spending on $NVDA chips.
My whole life, none have pressured me more than myself.
This is true as I have heard this from contacts in the Valley. Goes with my pinned post.
The AI race is shifting from bigger models to cheaper, smarter systems
Crypto stocks. We may be headed full-on to a Snow Crash cyber-punk future with no long-term personal relationships and digital value embedded in all of us directly correlated to the value provided to a society that increasingly devalues humanity. This may be the point in time that needs to be stopped from going forward by some future being. #snowcrash#
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Per Slok, 87% of VC funding is directed at AI, 49% of investment grade bond issuance is AI, and 38% of high yield bond issuance is linked to AI.
During the internet boom, in 1999, less than 40% of VC funding was linked to internet companies.
Broadening to the wider tech-media-telecom (TMT) bubble, in 1999, VC funding for TMT hit 80% of all funding. TMT bonds were 40-50% of the high yield bond issuance in 2000 and 25-30% of total investment grade bond issuance.
Over $100B investment grade debt issued in 1999-2000 became junk by 2002.
High yield debt at 38% today vs 40%-50% back then belies the idea that today’s AI debt issuance is cleaner, backed by more profitable companies today.
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