Melody Wright
@m3_melody
Strategist, Writer, Technologist, GFC 1 Survivor.
Tweets about housing, mortgage finance, commercial real estate, macro and technology. Not investment advice.
532 Following 48.6K Followers
The headlines are starting to get interesting as both mult and single-family come under stress.
Disappointing builder earnings just the beginning
Fall lining up to be super funky
@m3_melody Full interview now up:
I'm doing a foreclosure right now and they were given $15k in closing costs in 2022 so likely no money down. FHA is this cycle's subprime mortgage and look at where this is going. @m3_melody shared this idea with me 3 years ago and areas with high FHA concentration were falling even then. See Cape Coral Florida for details.
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And as @Johncomiskey77 has shown, many of these in builder hotspots are underwater
Housing affordability is so stretched that, ever since the Pandemic Housing Boom ended, most of the big homebuilders have had to rely far more heavily on FHA buyers to avoid a steeper drop in sales
FHA = little as 3.5% down + accept lower credit scores / higher DTIs
My latest for @ResiClub_HQ:
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"It's going to get really bad ... most consumers are already just completely stretched thin." @m3_melody on why the real economy is suffering far worse than official data would indicate. Full interview up TOMORROW.
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TSA air passenger numbers to 20 September. I use 91-day as it smooths out all holiday disruptions etc. Down 2.65% YoY.
Lock In Your Early Bird Price Discount For Thoughtful Money's Fall Online Conference (Oct 17th, 2026) ⬇️
The world's top experts in money & markets share their forecasts for how to preserve & build wealth as we head into 2027.
Speakers include @DariusDale42, @spomboy, @m3_melody, @profplum99, and others.
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“Pension funds invest across everything from public stocks to private equity to corporate debt to infrastructure and more. In the current era, it’s all morphing into AI risk.” 👇🏼
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As discussed in my recent post @UnicusResearch
One wonders if Netflix will cancel that purchase of Radford Studios...especially since they are developing that large studio in NJ
🤔
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“STREAMFLATION” DRIVES MASS STREAMING CANCELLATIONS
39% of Americans canceled at least one streaming subscription over the past six months, up sharply from 29% in March, according to Ipsos.
Repeated price hikes and broader cost-of-living pressures are driving the pullback, with the average U.S. household now spending around $69 per month on streaming.
Market angle: Netflix faces a key test with Q3 earnings, as investors watch whether rising prices are translating into accelerating subscriber churn.
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Short and jam-packed with info about what happened this summer, where we are and what’s next
Either prices have to come ⬇️ or wages must go 🆙
Per the experts on the 18-year land cycle, things should get very interesting nat’lly in 2027
Facts on the ground support that view
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I sat down with housing market analyst Melody Wright @m3_melody to discuss the latest warning signs in the U.S. housing market.
August home sales are below 2008 levels. Could a 40% decline in home prices be ahead?
We also discussed rising mortgage delinquencies, housing affordability, the Fed, what could trigger the next major housing market downturn and much more.
🎥 Full interview:
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And per Trepp the largest hard debt maturity wall we’ve seen for commercial will crash into Fall
👻🎃👻
It will be tricks for multifamily…
The delinquency rate for multifamily loans in commercial mortgage-backed securities jumped from 1% in October 2023 to 7.1% this year, the biggest increase of any major property type, a Morgan Stanley report found.
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3 sales in one day as "someone" prints magic money on a distressed office sale slated to become...you guessed it
The lawsuits are plentiful and the outcome could be our chalk outline to the datacenter grift
h/t to @FCNightingale for his original tweet about the sale
👇
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Data centers ambitions continues to defy the physical reality.
~ 30% and 50% of large-scale data center capacity slated to come online is facing heavy delays due to grid constraints and construction bottlenecks.
Here is one:
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Is the Upper K finally cracking?
Luxury auto sales are down dramatically.
@BentleyMotors sold fewer than 150 cars in July.
@astonmartin ‘s revenue is reportedly down 21%.
And @Porsche is trying a tactic largely used by $RACE - requiring buying less desirable models to get access to desired ones.
Great article from @thedrive:
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ATTOM default data out...a reminder: they pull from county records which means the data will lag ICE who uses mortgage data for referrals
In some states it could take several months for something to be filed on public record especially as the attorneys are already behind
Still
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The US Housing market index just fell again and is now near a point we have only seen 3x in 40 years. 1990, 2007 and 2020. If you are not a study of history, these were the most significant housing market events in half a century. Friends, I literally cannot create a more poignant chart than this. Housing is toast and the builders and history agree.
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Yes, indeed
Sellers are delusional
H/T: @FeltusRE
From Eaton speaking at a conference yesterday, just jaw dropping numbers:
“So, when we released our Q2 numbers the total announced projects for data centers was 307 gigawatts to be built, just think about that. And now today, we checked this week, it’s already 342 gigawatts. So, a month later, it’s already more. And then you contrast to what this industry has ever built. We have installed 50 gigawatts. So, today operating, there are 50 gigawatts. So, we are talking about between 6x and 7x what exists today is what’s going to be built in the next years. Most of this is not going to turn into ‘27 or ‘28 revenues. So, it’s going to be a longer cycle, that’s the way to think about it.”
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🏡 Mortgage demand from homebuyers drops 19% from a year ago
⭐️ Last week’s average rate on the 30-year fixed was 6.97%, but it has since surged to 7.22%
⭐️Applications to refinance a home loan dropped 9% for the week and were 65% lower than the same week one year ago
@DiMartinoBooth
@m3_melody
@nickgerli1
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🚨August Redfin results
July median sales price revised down
YoY nat'l median sales price increase decelerating from July (⬆️2.2% in Aug vs 2.4% in Jul)
14 of the 29 cities I track with population over 500K had negative YoY price declines versus 7 last month and 9 last year
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Nashville was my first stop in 2023
Each visit since to the cities listed below has only heightened my concern
Nashville, Tennessee is the strongest buyer's market in America with home sellers outnumbering homebuyers by 139%.
