Aluminum is expected to swing into a surplus in 2027, potentially of more than 1 million metric tons, as analysts eye new supply from Indonesia and a recovery in flows from Gulf smelters. ▪️CRU: 711,000 metric ton deficit in 2026 → 1.4 million metric ton surplus in 2027 ▪️Wood Mackenzie: 900,000 metric ton deficit in 2026 → around 500,000 metric ton surplus in 2027 ▪️Bank of America: smaller surplus of 239,000 metric tons in 2027 CRU expects Middle East output to rise to 6.4 million metric tons from 4.8 million this year, and Indonesian output to more than double to 3.2 million metric tons in 2027. Reuters says expectations of extra supply helped push aluminum below $3,000 a metric ton this week, its lowest since December. Wood Mackenzie says a surplus could still come with elevated premiums. Source: Reuters